Updated Alexander Hernandez vs. Renato Moicano Odds
Alexander Hernandez and Renato Moicano face off in a fight that was moved to the UFC 271 main card on Friday.
Hernandez made his name back in January 2019 when he talked trash to Donald Corrine and got finished. He has since traded wins and losses, going 3-3 in his last three fights. Hernandez has failed his three toughest tests, though.
After losses to Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung at featherweight, Moicano has won two of his last three fights at 155 points via rear-naked choke, losing to Rafael Fiziev between those victories.
Below I break down how these two fighters stack up with one another and where I see value in the betting markets.
Tale of the Tape
| Hernandez | Moicano | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4 | 15-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:22 | 8:21 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/1/92 | 5/21/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.79 | 5.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 36% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.82 | 3.43 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 65% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.57 | 1.96 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 60% |
| TD Def | 62% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.7 |
This lightweight bout was elevated to the main card on Friday in place of Rojo vs. Phillips, which is sensible given the relative odds of those two bouts.
Hernandez remains one of the biggest enigmas on the UFC roster. He debuted with a win over current title contender Beneil Dariush (as a +336 underdog), but he was rushed along too quickly and hasn't been able to put his game back together since.
Alexander "The Great" is well-rounded. He carries big power in his right hand, offers a strong wrestling base and can survive off of his back against Moicano with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu. However, Hernandez hasn't blended his skills or fulfilled his vast potential.
He serves much better as a hammer than a nail, recording seven first-round finishes. That said, the longer that his opponents hang around, the more his game seems to fall apart.
Skill for skill, Moicano is the more talented fighter in this matchup. He's a far more efficient striker (+1.69 to -0.03 strike differential; combined 112 to 95 efficiency rating) and the better grappler, with a takedown game (1.96 per 15 minutes, 60% accuracy) that will put anyone on their back.
Still, I remain skeptical of Moicano's durability at lightweight (2-1, one KO loss), especially against a power-puncher who can counter-wrestle like Hernandez.
And while Hernandez has the higher finishing upside, I'm comfortable that he also has the defensive tools — both on the feet and on the mat — to survive to see the scorecards, unless he finishes Moicano first.
Hernandez vs. Moicano Pick
I projected Hernandez as a 44.2% underdog in this fight (+126 implied), and I'm comfortable betting his moneyline at +130 or better but it's not a particularly strong play.
Hernandez wins inside the distance (projected +248, listed +250) is a fair price if you like the underdog, too, but I may prefer to bet his Round 1 odds, with seven Round 1 finishes (six in the first two minutes):
Alexander Hernandez adds to his highlight reel.#UFCVegas38
pic.twitter.com/j7X0QbAApj— Alex Behunin (@AlexBehunin) October 2, 2021
If Moicano survives the initial onslaught, Hernandez might start to wilt, but that is no guarantee if "The Great" has finally leveled up.
The Pick: Hernandez ML (+145) | Hernandez by Round 1 (+650)
