Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Odds, Prediction
| Volkanovski Odds | -142 |
| Lopes Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 Rounds (-165/+124) |
| Location | Kaseya Center | Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 12:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 314 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 314 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes predictions, picks and odds for UFC 314 on Saturday, April 12th.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, for a 13-fight card, featuring a featherweight title bout between former champion Alexander Volkanovski and No. 3 contender Diego Lopes.
Volkanovski, who successfully defended the Featherweight belt five times from 2019-2023, enters off consecutive knockout losses to Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, after a lengthy layoff (last fought February 2024) to heal after his most recent defeat. Saturday's bout will mark his 10th consecutive main event or five-round fight, and Volkanovski has shown some of the best cardio in the sport's history.
Lopes, who lost to Joanderson Brito on Contender Series in 2021, has surged the rankings with five consecutive wins (three finishes) since dropping a competitive, short-notice debut against unbeaten Movsar Evloev. Lopes has championship round experience (fought five-rounders regionally in 2019 and 2021), but he's taking a significant step up in competition for his first UFC main event.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 314 main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on Volkanovski vs. Lopes, who should make their cage walk at approximately 12:00 a.m. ET (9:00 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV.
Here's my Volkanovski vs. Lopes prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Volkanovski | Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-4 | 26-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:49 | 8:33 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/29/1988 | 12/30/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.16 | 4.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.44 | 4.11 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.78 | 0.50 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 40% |
| TD Def | 70% | 52% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 2.8 |
Diego Lopes is the taller and longer fighter (5" taller, 1" reach advantage), the more powerful athlete, the younger man, and the likelier of the pair to win the fight violently in the early stages.
Lopes is often a fast starter –finishing 15 of his 16 career wins in the opening round– but since he's big for the division, and tends to put max effort into early exchanges, his cardio doesn't hold up well under adversity; losing round three to Dan Ige, who took their fight on just a few hours notice.
Still, Lopes is an extremely dangerous opponent, and Volkanovski, who is coming off consecutive knockout losses, including a nasty one against Ilia Topuria, has severe durability concerns. Even before those finish losses, Volkanovski had been wobbled or hurt from strikes by several opponents, but always managed to recover; his chin may have finally cracked.
I bet Topuria by knockout over Volkanovski– and would have placed that bet regardless of when the fight took place– but it was a perfect timing for Topuria; with Volkanovski just four months removed from a prior knockout loss. Now that he's taken the extra time (14 months) to recover, before taking, what I perceive as a step down in competition against Lopes, I have a bit more confidence in Volkanovski's ability to weather the early storm before flipping the momentum of the fight his way.
Volkanovski is the much better minute winner and technical striker in this matchup. And don't forget he had nearly cleaned out the Featherweight division –with overwhelmingly dominant performances against any relevant contenders– before Topuria came along. Volkanovski isn't merely a former champion; he's an all-time great who lost to the two best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport.
He overwhelms opponents' decision-making abilities at striking range with feints and footwork. He lands a high number of kicks, out-landing his opposition by 2.2 strikes per minute, compared to a margin of +0.3 for Lopes (against lesser competition). Volkanovski is more accurate offensively, but also the far superior defensive striker (58% vs. 50%) as Lopes comes from a grappling base, and leaves his head on the center line. I don't think Lopes is exceptionally durable either (knocked out twice regionally), but Volkanovski is more of an attritional finisher than a single-shot power-puncher. Still, Diego's striking techniques are predictable (hooks and uppercuts), and I'd expect Volkanovski, who was outlanding Topuria before the knockout, to pick Lopes apart at range.
Lopes is the far more dangerous offensive grappler. Still, Volkanovski is the better wrestler (38% takedown accuracy, attempts 2.2 per five minutes at distance) and the likelier of the pair to hold top position (80% control rate vs. 43% for Lopes) for extended stretches. Lopes is happy to hunt for submissions off his back, but Volkanovski has shown excellent submission defense against other top grapplers (Brian Ortega and Makhachev). Lopes may have moments to find opportunistic submissions, particularly after hurting VokVolkanovski, but I don't see him winning a grappling-oriented game. Volkanovski is severely diminished, physically.
Overall, Volkvanovski has many more ways to win the fight: either by dominating minutes in a decision (by mixing striking and wrestling together) or securing an attritional finish. I expect him to take over with superior cardio and Fight IQ after the ten-minute mark.
Take Volkanovski fight, bet him live after the early rounds (best price potentially after Round 2), and either consider betting his late round props (Rounds 4 and 5) or laying the juice on his decision-only prop; Lopes' win condition is likely tied to an early finish.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes Prediction
I projected Alexander Volkanovski as a -168 favorite (62.7% implied) in this fight. I would bet his moneyline up to -150 (60% implied) or better prefight while waiting to add more to his moneyline live, anytime after Round 1 (with post-Round two markets potentially presenting the best live opportunity).
Given the durability concerns for both fighters –and Lopes' potentially cardio issues in the championship rounds– I lean toward the fight to end inside the distance; however, I don't project any value on that prop (projected -135, listed -155 to end inside the distance and +130 to go to decision).
I project slight value on Volkanovski to win by decision (projected +201, listed +230) or in the decision only market (projected -455, listed -225). Alternatively, given the cardio dynamic between these fighters, I'd consider betting Volkanovski to win in Round 4 (+1600) or Round 5 (+2000).
Lastly, if you do like the underdog, Lopes inside the distance (+180), by KO/TKO (+370), or in Round 1 (+700) are all better ways to bet him than taking his moneyline odds; if he doesn't finish the fight early, Lopes may look severely outclassed.
Sean's Pick: Alexander Volkanovski (-129 at BetRivers) | Volkanovski Live Anytime after Round 1
