Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds
| Volkov Odds | -155 |
| Rozenstruik Odds | +135 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-135 / +105) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel. | |
Alexander "Drago" Volkov and Jairzinho "Bigi Boy" Rozenstruik headline Saturday's fight night in a clash of top-10 heavyweights.
Both fighters have struggled against the elite of the division, with a combined 0-7 record against top-five heavyweights (according to the Tapology Rankings. However, they're undefeated against everyone else, with this matchup potentially keeping the winner in the upper echelon of heavyweights.
Below, we'll dig into all the factors in this one, including my favorite bet and a potential hedge.
Tale of the Tape
| Volkov | Rozenstruik | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 34-10 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:26 | 9:30 |
| Height | 6'7" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 256.5 lbs. | 259 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/24/88 | 3/17/88 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.83 | 2.80 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.04 | 3.07 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg. | 0.52 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 70% | 0% |
| TD Def | 71% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Volkov is the far more experienced of the two fighters, with a 44-fight professional career dating back to 2009. He's plied his trade in the UFC since 2016, picking up a very strong 8-4 record along the way.
As noted in the intro, he's cruised against anything but the best of the best. His four losses were all against top competition, including a first round submission loss to Tom Aspinall in his last fight.
He's primarily a striker, using his 6-foot-7 height and 80-inch reach to good effect. He's one of the most active heavyweight strikers, landing nearly five significant strikes per minute with above average defense.
While Volkov has shown some grappling ability, it's not his preferred method of attack. He's landed just half a takedown per 15 minutes, and looked rather lost on the ground against Aspinall.
Rozenstruik on the other hand is entirely a striker, with zero takedown attempts in 10 UFC fights. He has a 7-3 record, with his only losses coming to Francis Ngannou, Cyril Gane, and Curtis Blaydes.
Each of his fights against lesser competition have ended the same way: Rozenstruik by way of knockout. He's exhibit solid takedown defense, with a 75% overall average that is well above the UFC rate.
The difficulty here for Rozenstruik will be getting inside of the much taller Volkov. Volkov has a full five inches in height — though just two inches of reach — on Rozenstruik. With this one likely to play out primarily on the feet, that's a puzzle Rozenstruik will need to solve to have a chance here.
Volkov vs. Rozenstruik Pick
This fight being five rounds adds an interesting wrinkle to the analysis though. Volkov should be the better minute-winner, with his length giving him the volume edge. His power is questionable at best; he's finished just half of his UFC wins — low for a heavyweight — with a knockdown average below the UFC baseline.
Rozenstruik has no questions surrounding his power though, with a knockdown rate nearly five times that of Volkov's. It will be much harder for Volkov to avoid those big shots for 25 minutes than it would be for 15 minutes.
I prefer the side of the better finisher, especially with heavier weight class bouts. Rozenstruik has displayed solid cardio in his UFC run, with a fifth-round knockout on his record.
That tells me he'll be looking for the finish at any moment, and he should be able to find it at some point. Volkov is relatively durable, but he's taken a few knockouts in his career. His 44 fights is a lot of mileage, even though Volkov is the slightly younger fighter.
Rozenstruik has little chance of taking a decision here though, as he'll likely be out-struck unless (or until?) he lands the finishing blow. That's why I prefer the +210 odds on his knockout prop at FanDuel over his moneyline, and I'd bet it down to +180.
Additionally, Volkov by decision is +200 at Caesars, and his submission/decision double chance is +120 at DraftKings. Both are playable as a hedge against the 'Bigi Boy' knockout bet, though I'm happy to let it ride.
Rozenstruik is fairly new to the sport and could potentially still be improving — Volkov seems to have found his ceiling already.
The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO +210
