Alexander Volkov vs. Marcin Tybura Odds
The UFC's No. 5-ranked Heavyweight, Alexander Volkov, will face the No. 8-ranked Heavyweight, Marcin Tybura, Saturday at UFC 267. Tybura is riding a five-fight win streak entering the fight while Volkov is 3-2 in his last five and is coming off a loss to interim champion Cyril Gane.
Below I preview how these fighters match up and which side has betting value for this highly anticipated heavyweight fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Volkov | Tybura | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 33-9 | 22-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:17 | 12:10 |
| Height | 6'7" | 12'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 250 lbs. | 250 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/24/88 | 11/9/85 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.84 | 3.63 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.88 | 3.31 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.57 | 1.67 |
| TD Acc | 70% | 45% |
| TD Def | 67% | 82% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Alexander Volkov has completely filled out and turned into one of the most physically imposing heavyweights on the UFC roster, and he makes the most of his height (+4 inches) and reach (+2 inches) advantages in every fight.
"Drago" is an incredibly efficient striker (+1.96 strike differential; and +7% accuracy vs. Tybura) who should appreciate moving back to the larger, 30-foot-octagon, as opposed to the 25-foot cage at the APEX, which was used in three of his past four fights.
Tybura enters this bout on a five-fight winning streak, but he'll have to close the distance against the larger man in the big cage. His two most recent wins also came in a small cage, but this run hasn't been particularly impressive; he's going to need multiple takedowns and/or excessive control time (via the clinch) in order to win this fight.
Volkov has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling, and though he was taken down 14 times (a Heavyweight record) by Curtis Blaydes, he showed an excellent getup game and won the final two rounds of the bout.
His takedown defense (54%) undersells his ability to stuff shots, but Volkov is also an adept scrambler for such a big man and he starts throwing hands the moment that he gets back to his feet.
Perhaps Tybura secures one or two takedowns early in this fight, but I doubt that he can keep Volkov on his back for long, and the Pole should get chewed up with straight punches at range.
Volkov vs. Tybura Pick
Volkov may not fit into the top three of the Heavyweight division. Still, this is a big step up in competition for Tybura against a solid top-five talent.
I project slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -159), but not enough edge to make a bet. I prefer to use Volkov as a parlay piece (up to -310), and I paired him with Magomed Ankalaev.
The Pick: Use Volkov in Parlays (Up to -310)
