Pantoja vs. Perez Odds
The flyweight division will have another worthy title challenger when Alexandre Pantoja meets Alex Perez on Saturday at UFC 277.
In this high-stakes 125-pound matchup, Pantoja (24-5) or Perez (24-6) are likely to produce a high-octane affair.
But which contender has the edge? Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Pantoja | Perez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-5 | 24-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:48 | 6:17 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/16/1990 | 5/21/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.24 | 4.62 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.34 | 3.08 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg. | 1.26 | 2.92 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 45% |
| TD Def | 67% | 87% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Thanks to a series of canceled bouts, Perez hasn't competed since his short-notice November 2020 title shot against now-champ Deiveson Figueiredo.
I view him as the more technical fighter, with superior wrestling and cardio, against the more powerful striker and dangerous grappler in Pantoja. Those respective skill sets point toward Perez as the superior minute-winner throughout three rounds, mainly down the stretch.
He should dictate where the fight takes place and be able to mix his striking and wrestling. And so long as he doesn't get his back taken in a scramble or get clipped on the feet, this could be his fight to lose.
Perez owns the superior striking metrics (+1.54 to +0.9 strike differential per minute, +6% defense), and he's reliable to wrestle (6.5 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 45% accuracy). And Pantoja is not nearly as dangerous off his back as he is in scrambles – where he can snatch a back or a neck in the thick of chaos.
Perez may be able to take down Pantoja and control him in guard while landing moderate ground and pound. And he should land slightly more volume – though perhaps less damaging blows – when the fight returns to striking range.
Pantoja vs. Perez Pick
All signs point to a competitive flyweight bout in which Perez has higher decision equity while Pantoja has more finishing upside, particularly early.
I projected Perez at +146 (40.6% implied) in this fight and would bet him down to +150 pre-fight. You can also look for live prices after Round 1 since his success should build the longer the fight goes.
And you can also bet Perez to win by Decision (projected +310, listed +380 at BetRivers) in the winning method market.
On the Pantoja side, I'd prefer his knockout and submission props (or inside-the-distance prop) to his moneyline.
The Picks:
- Alex Perez (+160, 0.5u) at Caesars
- Alex Perez wins by Decision (+380, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- Alex Perez Live after Round 1
