Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura Odds
| Pantoja Odds | -265 |
| Asakura Odds | +215 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / -105) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 12:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 310 odds as of Friday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 310 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura predictions, picks, and odds for UFC 310 on Saturday, December 7, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC will return to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 14-fight card featuring a flyweight title bout between current champion Alexandre Pantoja and former two-time Rizin bantamweight champion Kai Asakura.
Asakura will make a rare UFC debut in a title fight. He's the 24th fighter to officially do so, but the promotional switch to a title shot is extremely rare for the modern UFC era. Gilbert Melendez — a Strikeforce Champion who received an immediate lightweight title shot against Benson Henderson in 2013 — was the last fighter presented with such an opportunity.
Pantoja enters on a six-fight winning streak and seeks his third consecutive title defense following a pair of decisions against Brandon Royval and Steve Erceg. He's already defended the 125-pound belt more than any fighter in UFC history, except for divisional GOAT Demetrious Johnson (11 title defenses).
Here's my Pantoja vs. Asakura pick and prediction.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Pantoja | Asakura* | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-5 | 21-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:01 | N/A |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/16/1990 | 10/31/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.41 | N/A |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | N/A |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.97 | N/A |
| SS Defense | 50% | N/A |
| Take Down Avg | 2.61 | N/A |
| TD Acc | 47% | N/A |
| TD Def | 68% | N/A |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | N/A |
Asakura is three years younger than Pantoja, who is nearing the dreaded age 35 cliff that has proved detrimental for UFC champions; fighters age 35 or older are 2-31 in UFC title fights at welterweight (170 pounds) and below. Pantoja turns 35 in April.
A former bantamweight, Asakura is the taller, longer fighter (3" taller, 2" reach advantage) and carries more power than Pantoja. Still, Asakura hasn't fought at Flyweight since 2017 and had several catchweight bouts at 130 before moving up to 135.
Moreover, he's never seen the championship rounds and cutting to a lower weight class could sap his gas tank, leaving Pantoja — who typically tires late in fights but manages to fight through fatigue — as the fresher man in a potential fourth or fifth round.
Additionally, Asakura is switching from a ring in Rizin to an octagon in the UFC, and the wrestling adjustment could be challenging inside a walled cage.
Furthermore, Pantoja presents the most challenging grappling test of Asakura's professional career. "The Cannibal" is one of the best back-takers in the sport and seems likely to get to his desired positions against a striker. If he does end up in control positions, Asakura will need to prove that he can scramble out from bad spots.
On the feet, Asakura is the far more dangerous man. He has the most complete striking game Pantoja has faced in some time, mixing knees and kicks alongside his potent right hand. In contrast, Pantoja's three most recent opponents relied on boxing in the pocket, leaving themselves in range of takedown attempts; Asakura could try to play the range game with kicks and force Pantoja to chase him.
I'd expect Asakura to land some damaging – and potentially fight-ending strikes in the opening frame. Eventually, Pantoja won't be able to take that damage from an opponent, but if he does, whether that storm or not, this fight should eventually tilt in his direction. Pantoja has been cracked in every fight lately but has shown exceptional recoverability throughout his career. No fighter looks hurt or exhausted, only to turn the tables on their opponent consistently moments later, like Pantoja; he has incredible willpower.
I am highly concerned about Asakura's gas tank. Given the weight cut, travel, and lack of five-round experience, I'd favor Pantoja on minute-winning down the stretch. Moreover, Asakura has shown durability concerns, which would only be amplified after cutting down in weight.
Still, Asakura should land more damage in the first half of the fight – when he isn't getting out grappled – and has a chance to be the first man to finish Pantoja. Unless Pantoja takes his back and immediately submits him, Asakura should make this bout more competitive than the moneyline otherwise suggests.
Pantoja vs. Asakura Pick, Prediction
I projected Alexandre Pantoja as a 69.5% favorite (-228 implied odds) in this fight, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. I'd consider backing the underdog at +239 (29.5% implied) or better.
I expect this fight to go the distance or reach a decision 40% of the time (+150 implied odds). On average, Flyweight fights reach a decision nearly 55% of the time; this fight is lined closer to 33.3%. However, given the cardio concerns and lack of five-round experience on the Asakura side, I'd rather bet the Over 2.5 Rounds (-128) to -150, or the Fight Stars Round 4 prop at -110
Additionally, I project slight value on either fighter prop to win by decision, setting Pantoja at +260 (listed +350) and Asakura at +719 (listed +800). I also like Asakura's point spread: +9.5 points (+105) at plus money at DraftKings.
Sean's Picks:
- Over 2.5 Rounds (-120 at DraftKings); Bet to -150
- Asakura +9.5 Points (+105 at DrafKings); Bet to +100
