Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo Odds, Prediction
| Lemos Odds | +114 |
| Lucindo Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-260/+195) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 313 odds via DraftKings as of Wednesday. Bet on UFC Seattle with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo predictions, picks, and odds for UFC 313 on Saturday, March 8
The UFC is trying to build some hype around 23 year-old Iasmin Lucindo, who has won four straight fights since dropping her UFC debut. This will be her third straight bout on a PPV card, and a big step up in competition against former title challenger Amanda Lemos. This could be the birth of a new contender at strawweight, or a veteran fighter proving her time as a contender isn't over.
Here's my Lemos vs. Lucindo prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Lemos | Lucindo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-4-1 | 17-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:43 | 13:44 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 66" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/22/1987 | 1/8/2002 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.16 | 3.52 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.87 | 2.91 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.90 | 2.40 |
| TD Acc | 63% | 57% |
| TD Def | 61% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.2 |
While Iasmin Lucindo officially comes into this fight on a winning streak, her last fight was a very close split decision against Marina Rodriguez. A slight majority of both fans and media members thought that fight should've gone the other way.
What makes that matchup especially relevant here is the stylistic similarity between Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos. Both are considerably older than Lucindo — about 14 years — and primarily strikers who struggle when forced to grapple for extended periods.
Lemos is certainly a stiffer test for Lucindo, though, owing to her much more impressive power. While Lucindo is at a disadvantage striking with either woman, mistakes against Rodriguez were far less costly than they will be against Lemos.
To Lucindo's credit, she doesn't make too many mistakes. She absorbed only 33 significant strikes from Rodriguez, who typically has a more voluminous output than Lemos. However, some of the shots she did take wobbled her, and those could turn into knockouts against Lemos.
Which isn't to say Lucindo isn't also a capable striker. She throws heavy, with occasional flashy attacks that can score well with judges if they land. If I was coaching her for this fight I wouldn't suggest striking as Plan A, but she's not totally drawing dead if forced to contest this one standing.
She was able to land three takedowns on Rodriguez, all from clinch positions. Lucindo was fairly dominant on the mat, advancing position and doing a reasonable amount of damage from the top while attempting submissions opportunistically. However, she was stood up by referee Marc Goddard in the second and third rounds (from half guard and mount), which limited her offensive opportunities.
Getting those takedowns earlier in the round and avoiding the stand ups will be key against Lemos.
That plan was executed to perfection by Virna Jandiroba in Lemos' last fight. Jandiroba was able to secure a takedown in the first minute of Round 1, before picking up a submission in the second frame. Lemos didn't make it easy, though, reversing position a number of times and finding some success in scrambles.
Lemos has a bad habit of jumping for guillotines rather than defending takedowns, which made the takedown for Jandiroba much easier. Sometimes that works — see her win against Michelle Waterson — but not against stronger grapplers.
Lucindo is not the grappler than Jandiroba is, but she's unlikely to get caught by something as silly as a gilly. Additionally, it's worth pointing out that Lucindo is still just 23, and turned pro at 15 years old. There's still plenty of room for growth, especially in terms of Fight IQ.
Lemos is likely on the downside of her career at 37, though power is typically the last thing to go and she has plenty of it. She's live to find Lucindo's chin as long as this fight remains on the feet.
Lemos vs. Lucindo Prediction
Looking at this fight as a whole, I see two somewhat likely outcomes.
Either Iasmin Lucindo will be able to secure and keep top position on the ground, or Amanda Lemos forces a striking fight and eventually puts Lucindo out.
Lucindo's reliance on the clinch for takedowns rather than shooting from range gives Lemos more opportunities to find the button, especially with Lucindo's somewhat wild style on the feet. At the same time, Lemos' grappling deficiencies are unlikely to be fixed at her age.
Fortunately, FanDuel is offering an option that covers both of those outcomes. Under the "Featured Fight Specials" tab, Lemos by T/KO or Lucindo by Points is listed at -125. While there's some risk that Lucindo pulls off the sub, I'll take my chances given those odds. You could also certainly hedge that bet with Lucindo by submission at +600 via BetRivers.
Billy's Pick: Amanda Lemos by KO/TKO or Iasmin Lucindo by Points -125 (FanDuel)
