Amanda Nunes opened as a -400 (implied 80%) favorite for her Featherweight title bout at UFC 250 with Felicia Spencer and has been bet up to -625 (implied 86%) at DraftKings; bringing her odds closer to my crowdsourced projection (89%) for the fight.
A parlay including Nunes with the second-biggest favorite on the card, Sean O'Malley (-500), and my early UFC bet, Chase Hooper (-190), would only payout at +112 (implied 47%).
While I would be genuinely shocked if Nunes lost on Saturday night, even a parlay including Nunes and Hooper would make you lay -130 (implied 56.5%).
As a result, I would need to find some substantially underpriced favorites who include Nunes' moneyline in a small parlay, but I generally don't see any value in betting her moneyline for this fight.
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However, that presents an opportunity to take a deeper dive into the total and prop market for this fight, which is -360 (implied 78%) to finish inside of the distance, with Nunes by KO/TKO (-182) as the listed favorite under winning method.
Tale of the Tape
| Amanda Nunes | Felicia Spencer | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-4-0 | 8-1-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:36 | 7:20 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/30/88 | 11/29/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.34 | 4.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.63 | 6.27 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.33 | 1.36 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 16% |
| TD Def | 80% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Amanda Nunes Odds History
| Date & Opponent | Opening & Closing Odds | Results |
|---|---|---|
| 12/14/19, Germaine de Randamie | -303, -500 | W |
| 7/6/19, Holly Holm | -325, -465 | W |
| 12/29/18, Cris Cyborg | +230, +138 | W |
| 5/12/18, Raquel Pennington | -530, -909 | W |
| 9/9/17, Valentina Shevchenko | +100, -110 | W |
As you can see, the odds always move in Nunes' favor, even as an underdog.
And if you go back one fight further to her win over Ronda Rousey in December 2016, Nunes opened as a +240 underdog and closed at +130.
Felicia Spencer Odds History
| Date & Opponent | Opening & Closing Odds | Results |
|---|---|---|
| 2/29/20, Zarah Fairn | -625, -1010 | W |
| 7/27/19, Cris Cyborg | +305, +300 | L |
| 5/18/19, Megan Anderson | +125, +167 | W |
| 11/16/18, Pam Sorenson < | -190, -302 | W |
| 7/21/18, Helena Kolesnyk < | N/A, N/A | W |
>>Invicta FC bouts
Felicia Spencer has only had three UFC fights. Still, she does have a common opponent with Nunes in Cris Cyborg, who defeated Spencer in July 2019 by unanimous decision after losing her Featherweight title to Nunes.
Cyborg was a more substantial favorite against Spencer than she was against Nunes — and that was after breaking her 21 fight unbeaten streak and getting knocked out for the first time in her career.
Nunes also took substantial sharp action before her upset win, getting bet down by more than 90 cents on the dollar.
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UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer Prop Bets
Odds via DraftKings
| Prop | Nunes | Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Win by KO/TKO | -177 | +1600 |
| Win by Submission | +750 | +1000 |
| Win by Decision | +300 | +1200 |
| Win in Round 1 | +210 | +2200 |
| Win in Round 2 | +350 | +2500 |
| Win in Round 3 | +600 | +2800 |
| Win in Round 4 | +1200 | +3300 |
| Win in Round 5 | +2000 | +4000 |
Nunes enters UFC 250 on a 10-fight winning streak, including seven consecutive title fight victories and seven finishes with four first-round stoppages (two submissions, two TKOs).
The queen of women's MMA has finished 16 of her 19 career victories (13 knockouts, three submissions), and as I alluded to earlier this fight is -360 (implied 78%) to finish inside of the distance, with Nunes by KO/TKO (-182) as the listed favorite under winning method.
I don't see much value on either one of those bets, however. Nor do I see value on Nunes to win in the first round (+210), even though she could completely dominate Felica Spencer with her explosive speed, power, and grappling.
Over 1.5 rounds (-200) is essentially betting the NO on the Nunes' first-round prop, considering that Spencer is +1900 to win in Round 1, and as high as +4000 to finish the fight in round five.
I keep going back to that Cyborg fight for Spencer, where she came out aggressively and showed both courage and toughness against a world-class fighter despite ultimately getting picked apart in terms of significant strikes — 122-38 per UFC Stats.
Spencer's best chance on Saturday is to try to out-grapple the champion, which will be a tall task considering Nunes' excellent takedown defense (80%), and the fact that both women are black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
I doubt that the challenger has enough power to make Spencer by KO/TKO/DQ (+1800) a viable wager, and the odds look too short on Spencer to win either by submission (+600) or decision (+1200).
I don't anticipate that she will be able to take Nunes to the ground and power her way to victory, as she did in her most recent fight:
And since Nunes will want to keep the fight standing, Nunes by submission (+600) doesn't appeal to me either.
In the Cyborg fight, the Brazilian landed three times as many significant strikes (122 to 38) at a much higher rate (56% to 44%) than Spencer, while stopping the Canadian on all eight takedown attempts. Spencer took a lot of shots and still kept on coming, however.
While Nunes has significantly more power than Cyborg and represents a more stringent test in a five-round fight, I have to go against the grain and look at Nunes by decision (+333) or to win in Round 4 (+1200) or Round 5 (+2000) once Spencer begins to tire out in the deep waters of the championship rounds.
We saw a higher percentage of stoppages last Saturday in the smaller 25-foot cage than we would typically see in the 30-foot octagon — and Nunes will undoubtedly be able to land some big shots during the fight.
But if Spencer can survive the first round, there's a strong chance that this fight does go to the scorecards, and while I'm unwilling to lay significant juice (-200) on over 1.5 rounds, Nunes by decision (+300) is the most appealing prop bet on the board.
