Andre Fialho vs. Jake Matthews Odds
Andre Fialho and Jake Matthews find themselves thrust into the spotlight on the UFC 275 main card after Rogerio Bontorin was hospitalized and his fight with Manel Kape was called off.
Fialho has already fought three times in 2022 — January, April and May — and has back-to-back stoppage wins. Matthews, on the other hand, hasn't fought since March 2021 and is looking to bounce back after being submitted in a loss to Sean Brady.
The odds on this fight are relatively close on both sides, with juice on the under 2.5 rounds. So where's the value here? I break down both sides of the matchup below.
Tale of the Tape
| Fialho | Matthews | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4-0 | 17-5-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:25 | 11:26 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/7/1994 | 8/19/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.23 | 3.03 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.75 | 2.16 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg. | 0.00 | 1.93 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 41% |
| TD Def | 75% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Matthews appears to be a popular underdog selection this week, and I certainly understand the urgency to bet against Fialho.
The latter may be overvalued on the heels of consecutive knockout wins over Miguel Baeza and Cameron VanCamp.
ANDRE FIALHO (-400) PUT HIM TO SLEEP 😴
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) May 7, 2022
Fialho is a one-dimensional boxer who headhunts. He rarely throws body punches or leg kicks. Moreover, his grappling remains a significant question mark.
Still, Fialho has likely improved his game — relative to his earlier career — after training both at American Kickboxing Academy and Sanford MMA. I'm not sure this is the correct spot to fade him.
Aside from his win over Li Jingliang, Matthews' UFC wins have all come against fighters who are no longer with the promotion. And he's unlikely to make significant improvements while training out of a small local gym in Australia.
In theory, Matthews has the wrestling and grappling upside in this matchup (1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, 41% accuracy). Still, if he can't get the fight to the mat, Fialho is the far more powerful striker and will almost certainly inflict more damage than his opponent.
That said, Matthews is the more diverse striker who is less likely to brawl (61% striking defense, vs. 48% for Fialho), which is the type of fight that Fialho desires.
Fialho vs. Matthews Pick
Ultimately, I don't project value on either side of the matchup from a moneyline or prop perspective, and the total also aligns with my projection.
As a result, I will pass on betting on this fight and use it to evaluate whether Fialho's grappling has leveled up.
For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
