Updated Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa Odds
UFC veteran Andrei Arlovski returns to the Octagon to face up-and-comer Jared Vanderaa in the featured prelim of UFC 271.
The 43-year old Arlovski was as busy as he's ever been in 2021 and went 2-1 over the course of the year — he's 4-1 in his past five fights. Vanderaa has just four fights under his belt, including his win in Dana White's Contender Series, but he has suffered two losses by TKO.
Will the 'The Pitbull' continue to defy age, or will youth win out in this scrap? I break down how the two Heavyweights stack up and how I'm approaching this fight below.
Tale of the Tape
| Arlovski | Vanderaa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 32-20 (2 NC) | 12-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:04 | 9:27 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 240 lbs. | 265 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/4/79 | 5/12/92 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.03 | 5.24 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 39% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 20% |
| TD Def | 78% | 20% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Arlovski will make his 37th walk to the Octagon on Saturday for his 55th professional fight. It seems inconceivable that a man who made his professional debut in 1999, his first octagon appearance at UFC 28, and who won the Heavyweight championship at UFC 51 could still be fighting at this level.
Still, Arlovski remains the perfect low-level gatekeeper — with sufficient movement, quickness, and volume — to test the bottom-of-barrel Heavyweights on the UFC roster.
That's about where I rate Vanderaa, who I suspect will have a difficult time chasing down Arlovski without eating a ton of jabs and leg kicks. The veteran will stick and move constantly, and I'm not sure that Vanderaa has a game plan to counteract that, aside from bum-rushing the borderline senior citizen.
I doubt that Vanderaa can replicate his output from the Justin Tafa fight (121 significant strikes) against an opponent who won't stand in front of him. His prior success has come through his grappling and ground and pound.
Still, Arlovski is likely the superior grappler (career 78% takedown defense), and I think that he's the one who should shoot for takedowns (0.43 per 15 minutes for his career) if Vanderaa can close distance; Jared is a complete fish on his back.
Arlovski vs. Vanderaa Pick
Arlovski's chin has seemingly made a comeback, but he can't take too many clean shots at his advantaged age. That said, I'm not sure that Vanderaa has the power to put him away unless he gains top position – where any Heavyweight would be dangerous.
I show value on Arlovski's moneyline (projected 62%, -162 implied), but I prefer his odds to win by decision (projected +116, listed +140), as I do in all of his fights at this stage of his career.
The Pick: Andrei Arlovski Wins by Decision (+140)
