Anthony Hernandez vs. Brendan Allen Odds, Prediction
| Hernandez Odds | -340 |
| Allen Odds | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-210/+160) |
| Location | Climate Pledge Arena | Seattle, Washington |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Seattle odds via DraftKings as of Thursday. Bet on UFC Seattle with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Anthony Hernandez vs. Brendan Allen predictions, picks, and odds for UFC Seattle on Saturday, February 22.
While it wasn't the original choice for the co-main event, Anthony Hernandez vs. Brendan Allen is an extremely compelling fight between two fast rising middleweights. It's also a rematch of a 2018 LFA title fight that saw Hernandez take the championship from Allen in a reasonably close five round decision.
Of course, Allen was just 22 at the time, and both men have made big strides since. Will history repeat itself, or has Allen leveled up faster than Hernandez? Here's my Hernandez vs. Allen prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Hernandez | Allen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-2 | 24-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:16 | 10:05 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/18/1993 | 12/28/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.90 | 3.79 |
| SS Accuracy | 63% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.88 | 3.83 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.64 | 1.67 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 39% |
| TD Def | 65% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 2.3 | 1.3 |
In many ways, Anthony Hernandez and Brendan Allen are similar fighters.
Both are primarily known for their grappling — though they use it in different ways, as we'll discuss. They are both former LFA middleweight champions who hit some bumps in the road early in their UFC journeys, but have seen their stock rise in a big way over the last year or two.
Unfortunately for Allen, he hit a setback last year, dropping a 29-28 decision to Nassourdine Imavov in September. Allen dominated the first round of that fight with his grappling and control, but faded down the stretch after failing to capitalize on his dominant position.
That's been a recurring trend for Allen throughout his career. He's able to find takedowns the vast majority of the time, but hunts for submissions rather than doing damage once he has them. That strategy has worked extremely well against lower level competition. However, against opponents with the grappling skills to avoid being submitted, it often leads to a now-fatigued Allen taking on a fresh opponent in the following round.
The first fight against Hernandez back in 2018 was a perfect example. Allen spent the bulk of the opening round in top position, but gave up said positions in order to hunt submissions, then was unable to take Hernandez down later in the fight. That he's still making a similar strategic error more than six years later is somewhat concerning, especially when matched with a fellow grappler.
Hernandez is probably a slight step down in terms of pure grappling ability, but his game is far more suited for MMA. He looks for damage from top positions, softening up his opponents (and scoring points with the judges) before going for the submission.
His preferred finishes all come from the front head lock position, which also allows him to find the tap without giving up control — though he'll occasionally pull a guillotine — which is a higher reward and lower risk method than we often see from Allen.
The other edge for Hernandez in this matchup is his cardio. It's rare to see a fighter in a heavier weight class grapple as relentlessly as Hernandez, who attempted 29 takedowns across five rounds in his last fight.
Allen is probably the slightly better wrestler when fresh, though, and this is a three round fight. That should help Allen here, while Hernandez taking over in the third round is also highly plausible.
Another possibility is a somewhat sloppy kickboxing match between two fighters who prefer to grapple. I'd give Allen the edge there, as he's had the bigger moments striking in the past. However, it's hard to see him doing too much damage without getting a takedown attempt coming back at him, so that's unlikely to be a deciding factor.
Allen vs. Hernandez Prediction
Anthony Hernandez probably should win this fight.
With that said, these are awfully long odds considering the stylistic similarities between both men. The line is probably skewed a bit due to Allen's loss to Nassourdine Imavov last fall, but considering Imavov's performance since then the loss has aged pretty gracefully.
The rematch trends also basically even out here. Typically, the fighter who won the first bout (Hernandez) outperforms the odds in rematches, but so does the younger fighter, in this case Allen. He was extremely young when they first met, and is still just 29.
The current odds are about what I'd make this fight if it were a five rounder, but Allen has a better shot over three frames.
For that reason, I'm taking half of a unit on Allen prefight. However, I'll be looking to jump in on the Hernandez side after the opening round, since I expect we'll see better odds on the favorite at that point.
If you aren't able to bet it live, Hernandez in Round 3 or by decision at -120 on FanDuel is also an option to hedge.
Billy's Pick: Brendan Allen +270 (DraftKings) | Hernandez Live After Round 1
