Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang, Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Kansas City

Anthony Smith vz. Zhang Mingyang Odds, Prediction

Check out my Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang predictions, picks and odds for UFC Kansas City on Saturday, April 26th.

As so often happens, rather than giving a retiring fighter a matchup against a fellow veteran, the UFC is feeding them to a dangerous prospect. Former title challenger Anthony Smith has already declared this will be his last fight, and he's being used to build the name of Mingyang Zhang. While that promotional strategy occasionally fails, oddsmakers think it's likely to work on Saturday, with Zhang around a -450 favorite.

Here's my Smith vs. Mingyang prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith will likely be best remembered for his valiant but unsuccessful title fight against Jon Jones. Riding a three fight winning streak with two knockouts of former champions coming into the fight, Smith took a one-sided beating against Jones — but could've won the belt via DQ had he chosen not to keep fighting after a brutal illegal knee in the fourth round.

"Lionheart" lived up to his nickname and earned plenty of respect with that performance, but was never able to reach that level again. He's gone just 6-7 in the UFC since losing to Jones, including 2-5 in his last seven.

While Smith isn't especially old for a light heavyweight at 36, this will be his 59th professional fight on Saturday. The damage has clearly caught up to him, as he's noticeably slower, less powerful, and far less durable than he was during his peak in the UFC.

That last factor is especially concerning for Smith in this matchup. Mingyang "Mountain Tiger" Zhang has knocked out ten straight opponents in the first round, including two in the UFC. Showing little regards for defense, the Chinese prospect blitzes forward with barrages of punches, finishing opponents more with volume than any one singular shot.

A fighter with Smith's savvy and experience could exploit that style if he still had the physical tools. Smith has looked like he's fighting in slow motion in recent bouts, though, and will be unlikely to have the speed and reaction time needed to avoid the big shots. He certainly won't be able to avoid them, given all the knockout losses he's suffered recently.

The only realistic edge for Smith is in the grappling department. The last time he was matched with a prospect, Vitor Petrino, Smith was able to catch the young fighter with a guillotine along the fence when Petrino looked for a takedown.

The problem is that Smith hasn't landed a takedown of his own in seven fights, and Zhang is unlikely to initiate any grappling. He was taken down by Tuco Tukkos on the Road to UFC event, but spent less than a minute on the ground before escaping back to his feet.

Smith is, of course, a far better grappler than Tukkos. I'd expect him to control and/or submit Zhang on the ground if he can get him there, but that's a pretty big if.

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Smith vs. Mingyang Prediction

However, that narrow path to victory is what I'll be playing here.

It's hard to justify playing Zhang at his elevated prices, especially when his knockout prop is also -200 or worse throughout the industry.

On the other hand, Smith's submission line is +1000 at FanDuel. The way I see this fight, his submission prop should basically match his moneyline, but we're getting a pretty big price adjustment.

Is it likely to happen? Not especially. But it's a lot more fun to root for Smith to end his career on a high note than end it unconscious, so I'm taking a 0.1 unit sprinkle at ten-to-one odds.

Billy's Pick: Anthony Smith via Submission +1000 (FanDuel)