Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot Odds
Two of the UFC's top prospects will square off in Saturday's main event as No. 11 ranked Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan faces No. 12 ranked Mateusz Gamrot in what could prove a preview of a future Lightweight title bout down the line.
The 25-year-old Tsarukyan enters on a five-fight winning streak after losing a short-notice UFC debut to the next Lightweight title challenger, Islam Makhachev.
The 31-year-old Gamrot is 3-1 in the UFC after losing a split decision in his promotional debut to Guram Kutateladze, the only blemish on his career record.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday's matchup and utilize those factors to bet on the main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Tsarukyan | Gamrot | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-2 | 20-1 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:31 | 7:43 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 10/11/96 | 12/11/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.75 | 3.79 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.36 | 2.69 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg. | 3.47 | 5.83 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 40% |
| TD Def | 78% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.5 |
- Tsarukyan's favoritism is driven by 1) his close/competitive fight with Makhachev in a short-notice debut and 2) a pair of recent early finishes over Christos Giagos and Joel Alvarez.
- Still, until those recent finishes, Tsarukyan was considered to be more of a decision merchant who used his wrestling to grind on opponents. While Tsarukyan is strong, he's not a particularly big puncher. He primarily uses his grappling to kill the clock against opponents rather than hunting for submissions.
- Considering the mystery surrounding his five-round cardio, I would have difficulty laying such a hefty price on the Tsarukyan side. This is the first five-round fight of his career, and while it doesn't appear that Tsarukyan will struggle to fight for a full 25-minutes, it remains an untested area within his game.
- Conversely, Gamrot is both battle-tested and proven in the championship rounds.
- I'd say he's better in five-round fights than three-round fights. He won the KSW Lightweight and Featherweight straps in Poland, defended the Lightweight belt four times and headlined numerous cards. He's been to the fourth round or beyond on three occasions.
- Gamrot tends to pace himself for five-round affairs — partially explaining the loss in his UFC debut to Kutateladze — coming off of a five-round title fight and failing to show a ton of urgency early on (lost Round 1 on 2-of-3 scorecards).
- Both men are excellent wrestlers and blend their striking well with their grappling. I expect to see a back-and-forth affair in which all aspects of mixed martial arts are on full display.
- No matter who initiates the takedown or gets put on their back, I expect the opponent to be able to scramble back to their feet or reverse positions.
- And I would be surprised if either man can control their opponent in a particular position for extended stretches of the fight or if there isn't a grappling sequence in every round.
- Both fighters are complete mixed martial artists, and this should be a close and competitive affair in which individual rounds may be challenging to score.
- To justify the steep price tag, one must assume that Tsarukyan has a cardio advantage, durability advantage or superior finishing upside. I think Gamrot comes closer to checking the boxes by all three of those measurements.
- Gamrot has proven five-round cardio; he's never been finished (Tsarukyan was knocked out in 2015), and I give both fighters relatively similar finishing upside (50% of Gamrot's win condition, 45% for Tsarukyan).
- This bout should look highly competitive unless one fighter can hurt their opponent. Skill for skill, I have difficulty separating the two in any particular aspect of MMA.
Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Pick
I projected Gamrot as a 32.2% underdog (+210 implied odds) in this fight, and I show value on his moneyline down to about +230 (30.2% implied) at nearly a 2% edge.
Gamrot opened at+188 (34.7% implied) for this fight at FanDuel, and the market has moved against him. Still, I had anticipated a line closer to +150 (40% implied) on the Gamrot side when the fight was announced, rather than the current odds.
Moreover, I projected the fight to go the distance 53% of the time (-115 implied odds) or roughly 5% higher than the Lightweight average (48%), and I would bet that prop up to -105 (51.2% implied) at a similar edge to the moneyline.
As a result, I also show value on Gamrot to win by decision (projected +521, listed +550) depending on the book. However, I'm simply splitting a unit between Gamrot's moneyline and the distance prop rather than playing any winning method wagers.
If Tsarukyan becomes the first man to finish Gamrot, we'll lose both bets; otherwise, we'll break even at a minimum.
However, depending on the odds movement before fight time, I may add slightly more to Gamrot's moneyline.
The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot (+240, 0.5u) at FanDuel · Fight Goes to Decision (+100, 0.5u) at BetRivers
