Check out the Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig odds for UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC continues to play it safe with uber-prospect Bo Nickal, giving him a relatively slow climb up the middleweight ladder. This will be the fourth UFC appearance for the three-time D1 national champion, and the -1300 odds are the shortest he's finished with.
His opponent this time is noted submission specialist Paul Craig, a one-trick pony who's one trick could theoretically be the kryptonite to Nickal. Will Nickal continue to roll at UFC 309, and is there any value to be found with such long odds?
Here's my Nickal vs. Craig pick and prediction.
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig Odds
| Nickal Odds | –1300 |
| Craig Odds | +800 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+135/-175) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 309 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 309 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
John LanFranca's Tale of the Tape
| Nickal | Craig | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-0 | 17-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:49 | 7:58 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/14/1996 | 11/27/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.64 | 2.45 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.5 | 2.97 |
| SS Defense | 70% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 7.46 | 1.68 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 20% |
| TD Def | N/A | 37% |
| Submission Avg | 7.5 | 1.6 |
There have not been many prospects in the history of MMA that have combined such hype and credentials to the level of Bo Nickal. A three-peat as NCAA national champion warranted him a massive amount of attention as he transitioned to mixed martial arts.
The UFC has done everything possible to put him in the cage with opponents incapable of becoming a speed bump in the potential career of such a prospect.
His opponent Saturday night, Paul Craig, will be the first to provide a true test. UFC309 will mark the eighth consecutive fight in which Paul Craig enters as the betting underdog on fight night. Craig’s experience and dangerous grappling skills have allowed him to play spoiler, cashing as an underdog three times in those aforementioned eight bouts.
His high-level BJJ black belt causes even the most confident grapplers hesitation taking the fight to the mat, as Craig undoubtedly welcomes that type of fight.
Part of the reason Craig badly wants the fight to be settled on the ground is because he almost always enters the octagon out-classed as a striker. Craig not only reacts poorly to anything thrown his way in the stand-up, he lacks the durability to withstand many clean shots. With that said, there is no guarantee Bo Nickal can exploit such openings.
There is always a possibility we witness immense progress from the improving Nickal. There is also a chance onlookers feel the same way they did during Nickal’s fight with Cody Brundage – that maybe this was all a little too much, too soon, for the transitioning collegiate wrestler.
There is a tremendous difference between amateur wrestling and MMA wrestling, and I still have some questions that need to be answered in regards to Nickal.
Nickal vs. Craig Pick, Prediction
Nickal taking Craig down will present challenges he has yet to face in his young UFC career. Craig’s chances of finishing the fight decrease exponentially the more the fight is played out as a striking affair, as the most likely path to victory involves catching the inexperienced Nickal in a submission off of his back.
This line is much too wide in favor of a fighter as unproven as Nickal. If he is to prove me wrong and control Craig with ease, it is still no certainty he finds a finish of his own as easily as he has previously inside the octagon.
Thus, I will be splitting my bet into two half unit plays.
John's Picks: Bo Nickal by points +800 (Fanduel) 0.5 unit| Paul Craig moneyline +750 (Caesars) 0.5 unit
