Updated Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast Odds
Two lightweights will open up the UFC 271 main card when veteran Bobby Green faces Nasrat Haqparast on Saturday night.
Green has momentum entering this matchup after a first-round TKO win in November, while Haqparast looks to get back into the win column after a loss in September.
I break down how these fighters stack up with one another and how I plan to bet the pay-per-view opener below.
Tale of the Tape
| Green | Haqparast | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-12-1 | 13-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:33 | 12:06 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 9/9/86 | 8/22/95 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.51 | 5.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.56 | 3.48 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 71% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.45 | 0.16 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 14% |
| TD Def | 72% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Green, a veteran of 22 UFC and Strikeforce bouts, is as established and high-level of a fighter as any non-title-challenger who has graced the UFC octagon, and he has all of the skills to outclass the younger Haqparast in this fight. He does have some tendencies, though, that make all of his fights appear closer than they actually are.
Green out-struck Rafael Fiziev, one of the most gifted strikers in the world, 143-104 in his unanimous decision loss, largely due to power optics, which has been an issue throughout Green's career.
He's not a potent finisher and since 2017, Green is 4-5-1 on the scorecards, including a split loss, a split draw and a loss to Thiago Moises where the majority of media members and fans scored the bout for Green (fans thought it was closer to 30-27 than 29-28 the other way).
On metrics, Green won the striking battle in all but two of those bouts (tied 75-75 and trailed 104-93 in two fights), but how he reacts to clean shots from his opponents tends to leave a sour aftertaste with the cageside judges.
Moreover, he tends to leave a grappling path on the table to engage in stand-up fights, despite very underrated wrestling (career 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, 39% accuracy).
Green can have a close fight with any lightweight on the roster, but that includes top-end talent and fighters who should be considered beneath his skill level.
I don't rate Haqparast's skillset too highly, particularly after Dan Hooker outclassed him. Aside from a quick movement and a strong left hand, I don't see Haqparast posing many challenges for Green. If Bobby can mix in some takedowns, he should win this if it goes to a unanimous decision.
That said, I do respect Haqparast's first-level takedown defense (72%). You can control him when you put him on his back, but it's not so easy to get him there.
Green vs. Haqparast Pick
Both men are durable, so I expect this fight to see the scorecards, even if it's a 15-minute boxing match, which makes me leery of betting Green on the moneyline.
I show value on Green (projected 61% or -157 implied) and his odds of winning by decision (projected +119, listed +180 at FanDuel).
Furthermore, I value the fight to go the distance (projected 73%, or -271 implied, listed -200).
Typically, when I show value on all three of those data points (fighter moneyline, a fighter by decision, fight to go the distance), I take the fighter by decision prop – which is my favorite way to play this fight.
The market is all over the place on the correct number – listed anywhere between +120 at DraftKings, and +180 at FanDuel – so make sure to shop around for the best number.
However, I may also add a parlay involving Green's moneyline or the GTD prop.
The Pick: Green Wins by Decision (+180)
