Bobby Green vs. Rafael Fiziev Odds
UFC veteran Bobby Green takes on promising lightweight Rafael Fiziev in the featured prelim at UFC 265 on Saturday night in Houston.
This will be Green’s 16th trip inside the octagon, with his last seven fights being determined by unanimous decision. After winning three straight, Green lost his last time out to Thiago Moises in October 2020.
Fiziev, meanwhile, is coming off a knockout win over Renato Moicano at UFC 256 last December and has won three straight in UFC. The Kazakhstan native trains in Thailand and is a Muay Thai specialist.
Let’s break down this matchup in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions.
Tale of the Tape
| Green | Fiziev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-11-1 | 9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:55 | 8:53 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 155.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 9/9/86 | 3/5/93 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.17 | 4.67 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.32 | 4.17 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.56 | 0.84 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 50% |
| TD Def | 72% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
I unsuccessfully faded Fiziev in each of his past two fights and had no intention of doing that a third time in this spot, but I do think this line is a bit disrespectful to Green.
Green is the larger man, owns superior metrics (-6% strike accuracy, +8% defense, +1.85 to +0.05 strike differential) and is more well-rounded (1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes, 41% accuracy) offensively than Fiziev.
Green also has substantially more experience — 39 professional fights to 10 for Fiziev — and has competed against some of the best in the world at 155.
There’s a universe where Green is undefeated in his past seven fights, too, but his style is extremely unfriendly to judges. He throws a ton of volume and mixes in grappling, but he rarely puts the stamp on rounds, doesn’t hit with a ton of power and reacts poorly when absorbing shots back the other way.
Despite those reactions, Green is extremely durable, which narrows the margins for Fiziev in this fight. He’s a very slick boxer and can keep up or surpass Fiziev on pure output. Green also has the ability to switch stances, which should limit some of Fiziev’s effectiveness with the low kicks.
The Kazakhstan native doesn’t necessarily pull away from his opponents on volume, and he has appeared fairly hittable in the past. Still, Fiziev’s striking is so flashy and when he lands, it appears so damaging that he always looks to be fully in control of the striking.
Fiziev hasn’t faced a ton of grapplers in the past, and he has seemingly made excellent strides to compliment his Muay Thai base. But we also don’t know much about his ability off of his back.
And when you’re betting a large favorite against a fighter who will mix in a level change, that’s not the type of question I would want unanswered. It’s possible that a takedown could be a round in favor of Green.
Fiziev has also shown a tendency to slow down later in fights because he seemingly puts a ton of energy into his strikes and movement, so I would expect to see Green looking stronger in the final minutes of a close battle.
Green vs. Fiziev Pick
Fiziev is a very high-level prospect, potentially even championship material, but I think Green’s chances of winning this fight are being vastly underrated, particularly if the bout goes the distance. That result is expected (Yes listed -150) more often than not.
Green is exactly the type of guy you fade as a big favorite and ride as a big underdog. I would need +264 or better to back Green’s moneyline and +450 or better (projected +440) to play his decision prop.
Given Fiziev’s upside, however, I’m not particularly keen on either bet.
The Pick: Bobby Green wins by Decision (+475, 0.25u)
