Bogdan Guskov (16-3) faces Billy Elekana (7-1) in the UFC 311 prelims on Saturday night at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
Guskov is 2-1 to start his UFC career and is coming off a pair of wins over Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann. Elekana is making his UFC debut and is a noteworthy underdog in this matchup.
Let's get into my Guskov vs. Elekana prediction and preview in the bantamweight division tonight.
Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana Odds, Prediction
| Light Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov Odds | -395 |
| Billy Elekana Odds | +310 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (+100 / -130) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday night.
Crowdsourced Projections: Bogdan Guskov (71.9%)
The betting market hasn't been high on Guskov, who closed as an underdog (+154, +120, and +165, respectively) and ultimately seemed outclassed at points in his three UFC fights despite a 2-1 record.
Guskov was a surprising betting favorite against Johnny Walker. Still, the line has moved even further in his direction against short-notice replacement Billy Elekana, a PFL veteran and the more well-rounded fighter.
Elekana has never been finished (his lone loss was a split decision), and he has the grappling upside in this matchup. Guskov isn't exceptionally durable and has a known grappling deficiency.
Guskov should be the more powerful puncher, and he retains the finishing upside against any opponent. However, this line could be flipped if Elekana pursues a wrestling-oriented game plan and lands takedowns from the outset.
Guskov vs. Elekana Prediction
Bet the underdog pre-fight to +275 and wait to add more live after Round 1, most likely if Guskov lands a knockdown but swings himself out unsuccessfully trying to finish.
In the prop market, I'd consider Elekana to win inside the distance (projected +474, listed +500) and potentially in Round 2 (+1700) or Round 3 (+2500) after weathering an early storm.
Bets
- Billy Elekana (+310, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +275
- Billy Elekana Live after Round 1
