Brad Riddell vs. Jalin Turner Odds
After posting four consecutive stoppage victories, Jalin Turner looks to continue his climb up the lightweight ranks in UFC 276's featured prelim on Saturday.
His opponent, kickboxer Brad Riddell, will have to overcome his opponent's significant height and reach advantage to take a win back home to New Zealand.
Is Turner the rightful favorite? Is Riddell a live 'dog? Let's break it down. And for more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Riddell | Turner | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-2 | 12-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:28 | 6:29 |
| Height | 5'7" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/30/91 | 5/18/95 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.8 | 6.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 80% |
| TD Def | 62% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | .0 | 1.7 |
Saturday's featured prelim may be my most anticipated bout to watch at UFC 276. And if I set odds for Fight of the Night, this would likely be the co-favorite with Holloway-Volkanovski and Pereira-Strickland.
Turner is a huge and dynamic lightweight. He's 8 inches taller and will hold a six-inch reach advantage over Riddell, who's the striking coach for champ Adesanya's City Kickboxing team.
Riddell is hoping to avenge Turner's recent win over his CKB teammate, Jamie Mullarkey, and to put an end to Turner's four-fight finish streak.
Turner is an extremely fast starter, and his size advantage could pose problems for Riddell in the early stages of the fight. Still, cutting all of that weight to make 155 drains Turner's gas tank rather quickly, and he should begin to tire if Riddell can drag him into deeper waters.
Ridell has substantially more fighting experience – in professional muay Thai and kickboxing – and has faced a better slate of opponents in the UFC. Moreover, he's faced taller fighters in the past, so Turner's size and length may not pose as much of a challenge for him as they might for other fighters.
Moreover, Riddell has proven himself a solid offensive wrestler at the UFC level – securing five takedowns against Drew Dober, in particular – so he can change levels and keep Turner honest, in addition to draining his gas tank, throughout the fight.
Still, while Turner is a very fast starter, Riddell consistently loses the first round of his fights before rallying to victory. Perhaps that plays to his advantage here and he can tire out Turner after the opening frame.
However, I'm never particularly enthusiastic about betting a fighter's moneyline pre-fight when I'm almost sure I'll find a superior live price after Round 1.
Riddell vs. Turner Pick
Turner has never won a fight past the second round, and ultimately, I expect Ridell to take over late.
While I would play Riddell's moneyline small pre-fight (to +125) and would look to back him live at a better price after Round 1, I also bet Riddell to win by decision (projected +302, listed +380 at DraftKings). I expect Riddell to win the second and third rounds at drastically increasing percentages – if he doesn't find a late finish first.
Turner is significantly live to finish any opponent in the first round, particularly with his physical gifts in the 155-pound division. However, Riddell has more fight experience and seems likely to pull away late if Turner doesn't stop him first.
The Picks: Brad Riddell (+135, 0.25u) at DraftKings | Brad Riddell wins by Decision (+380, 0.25u) at DraftKings | Brad Riddell Live after Round 1|
