Brad Tavares vs. Dricus Du Plessis Odds
The UFC's late prelims kick off ESPN with a middleweight clash between vet Brad Tavares and Dricus Du Plessis.
Tavares, who's fought for more than 12 years in the UFC, faces another up-and-comer in Du Plessis. The former European champ has scored back-to-back knockout wins since joining the UFC.
Below I break down both sides of the fight and detail where to find betting value in the matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Tavares | Du Plessis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-7 | 16-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:09 | 5:02 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/21/87 | 1/14/94 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.18 | 5.07 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.76 | 2.39 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 68% |
| Take Down Avg. | 0.91 | 2.99 |
| TD Acc | 27% | 50% |
| TD Def | 79% | 0% |
| Submission Avg. | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Du Plessis made a statement in his first two UFC bouts, handing Markus Perez and Trevin Giles their first-career KO losses.
The former KSW champion also holds a win over the current two-division KSW champion Roberto Soldic, one of the top prospects outside of the UFC.
Who had Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO? 😮#UFC264
(via @ufc)— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) July 11, 2021
All 18 of Du Plessis' pro-MMA fights have ended inside the distance, including his losses. And the average middleweight bout at the UFC level ends inside the distance 60% of the time (-150 implied).
Tavares is an established UFC veteran (14-6 with the promotion) and the current No. 12-ranked middleweight contender. While the Hawaiian doesn't have much finishing ability (12 of 14 UFC wins by decision), he has been knocked out three times, so he isn't exceptionally durable either.
Du Plessis is a fast starter who tends to gas out the longer his fights go. He's a bit of an unorthodox mover but is very accurate with his hands and capable of changing levels and submitting opponents on the ground.
While Tavares should be able to deny any takedown attempts (79% career) from Du Plessis, the South African is an all-action fighter who will find ways to land on Tavares off the counter.
Tavares is the more technical striker – and likely the better minute winner. However, Du Plessis has substantially more finishing upside, justifying his favoritism.
Tavares vs. Du Plessis Pick
As I mentioned, middleweight fights end inside the distance around 60% of the time, and I put this one at 62% (-163 implied). I'm surprised that the number is around 4.5% below the divisional average.
As a result, I bet the fight ends inside the distance at -110. And though that price has increased, you can still play that up to -150 at a two percent edge.
Additionally, you can bet Du Plessis to win inside the distance down to +117 at a similar edge (projected +108, listed +138 at BetRivers).
The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis wins Inside the Distance (+138, 0.25u) at BetRivers | Du Plessis / Tavares, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-124, 0.5u) at FanDuel
