On Saturday, the UFC returns to Mexico City for a 13-fight card, featuring an crucial main event in the flyweight division between former champion and No. 2 contender Brandon Moreno and former title challenger and No. 8 ranked Steve Erceg.
Check out my Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg predictions, picks and odds for UFC Mexico City on Saturday, March 29
Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg Odds, Prediction
| Moreno Odds | -238 |
| Erceg Odds | +195 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (-238/+180) |
| Location | Arena CDMX | Mexico City, Mexico |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Mexico City odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Mexico City with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Moreno, a two-time former UFC Flyweight champion, rebounded from consecutive losses against Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval with a win over Amir Albazi last November. Saturday's contest will mark his fourth consecutive five-round fight, and the ninth of his UFC tenure, including a contest at altitude in Mexico City.
Erceg will hope to bounce back from a two-fight losing streak, including his title fight loss to Alexandre Pantoja and a knockout loss at UFC 305 against Kai-Kara France, following a 3-0 start in the promotion. He's only seen the championship rounds on one occasion (against Pantoja) and has never fought at elevation.
Here's my Moreno vs. Erceg prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Moreno | Erceg | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-8-2 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:40 | 12:54 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/7/1993 | 7/27/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.99 | 4.37 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.53 | 4.22 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.59 | 1.16 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 26% |
| TD Def | 64% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Steve Erceg is the taller fighter, with longer legs, but Moreno will have a two-inch reach advantage in boxing exchanges, where Erceg prefers to engage his opponents.
Erceg likely has the faster hands and sharper technique in the pocket, but Moreno should have the superior kicking game from distance, and he holds all of the offensive wrestling/grappling upside in this matchup.
The pair have spent a similar amount of their fight time at distance (71% for Moreno, 69% for Erceg) and out-landed their opponents by a similar margin (+0.5 strikes per minute), albeit against different levels of competition. Still, Moreno has controlled 64% of grappling positions against opponents, compared to 43% for Erceg, and Moreno is the far better wrestler of the pair.
Erceg has attempted takedowns at a higher rate (2.1 per five minutes at distance vs. 1.6 for Moreno) than his opponent – and defensively, he showed excellent submission defense and scrambling abilities in his title fight loss against Alexandre Pantoja (permitted nine takedowns on 19 attempts, but for 8:15 control time – less than one minute per takedown).
Even if Moreno does land takedowns (landed 30 of 65, 46% in his career), I don't expect him to control Erceg for significant stretches of the fight; still, mixing his striking and grappling together forces Erceg to defend both, which can give Moreno the upper hand in striking exchanges.
Given his more extensive five round history, experience fighting in the venue in Mexico City at elevation, and with the way Erceg slowed in his lone fifth round against Pantoja (gave up 2:46 control time, his most of the fight), I'd give Moreno a clear cardio advantage in this matchup.
As a result, you can live bet the favorite anytime after Round 1, with the peak price potentially coming after Round 3, with Erceg leading 2-1.
Still, Moreno is also much more durable than Erceg – and offers vastly more finishing upside throughout the contest. Betting markets are attuned to that assessment – Moreno is -475 (82.6% implied) in finish-only markets – but it's worth noting that he has more upside towards winning a dominant decision (via grappling) or finishing the fight. In contrast, Erceg's win condition is likely tied to a competitive decision on the road.
Erceg still hasn't established his proper place within the shallow Flyweight division. Due to a 3-0 start, the promotion rushed Erceg to a title shot, since Pantoja held wins over most top contenders. Still, Erceg had previously dropped rounds to unranked competition, and he was subsequently uncompetitive (as a favorite) against Kai Kara-France.
That said, I'm not interested in Moreno's point spread (-5.5, -105) at juice; even though he covered that line in his last fight. I thought that Moreno had looked flat in his recent performances – the loss to Royval and the win over Amir Albazi – and I don't think he'll separate from a better striker (like Erceg) enough to win four rounds convincingly.
The tipping point in this fight is the advantage of championship round cardio for Moreno while fighting at elevation; otherwise, I'd bet Erceg at this number in a three-rounder at sea level.
Moreno vs. Erceg Prediction
I projected Brandon Moreno as a 69% favorite (-223 odds) in this matchup, and I don't show value on either side of the moneyline. I would consider betting Steve Erceg beginning at +245 (29% implied) or higher, at a two percent edge compared to my projection.
However, I show a slight edge on the Over 4.5 Rounds (listed -225) or the fight to reach a decision (projected 70%, -234, listed -200), and would bet those up to -250 and -215, respectively.
Moreover, I show correlated value on Moreno to win by decision (projected +116, listed +130), which you can bet to +120, or use on round-robin tickets.
Finally, I would attempt to time the best live price on Moreno, which could come at any point during the fight, but potentially after the second, third, or fourth rounds; either with the fight tied or Erceg in the lead.
Sean's Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (-200 at Caesars) | Brandon Moreno Live Anytime After Round 1
