Brendan Allen vs. Jacob Malkoun Odds
Middleweights Brendan Allen and Jacob Malkoun will battle it out in the prelims Saturday at UFC 275. Allen is a huge favorite and is 3-2 in his past five fights with two finishes in the span — both losses have come by TKO. Malkoun's UFC career began with a loss but he has bounced back since with consecutive wins.
Both fighters look to be on the cusp of getting into the top-15 of the division and a win could certainly put either man into that category. Below I break down the fight and detail where to find betting value in the matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Allen | Malkoun | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:03 | 10:06 |
| Height | 6'2" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/28/1995 | 8/26/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.39 | 3.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.59 | 2.64 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg. | 1.04 | 6.93 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 35% |
| TD Def | 44% | 45% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 1.0 |
Malkoun doesn't have the most fan-friendly fighting style. After getting knocked out immediately by Phil Hawes in his UFC debut, Malkoun has responded with a pair of upset wins against Abdul Razak Alhassan and AJ Dobson by racking up takedowns and control time.
In 30 minutes of octagon time against those two opponents, Malkoun secured 14 takedowns on 40 attempts (35%) and spent 20:58 (70% of the fights) in control positions.
The question is whether Malkoun can take down and hold down Allen, a well-rounded Middleweight who trains with a top camp at Sanford MMA.
Allen has some durability concerns, but Malkoun isn't the type of fighter to threaten a knockout. And even if Malkoun can take him down, Allen is a slick grappler who can reverse positions or scramble back to his feet.
That said, I have consistently underrated Malkoun's top pressure. He indeed prioritizes position over submission and does just enough damage from the top to secure rounds in his favor.
On the feet, he's very slow and likely to get finished unless he can slow the fight down, create extensive grappling situations, and put Allen flat on his back. Malkoun is a high-effort fighter with good stamina. He knows his limitations and will relentlessly pursue takedowns to maximize his potential to win.
Allen vs. Malkoun Pick
While I don't value either side of the moneyline or the totals, I see a considerable disagreement in my assessment of Malkoun's win condition.
I projected a decision as 60% of Malkoun's win probability (40% finish) and set the line at +508. And frankly, I could have made that closer to 70-75%.
The betting of his win condition (60-65% by finish).
Given that discrepancy, I bet Malkoun to win by decision, and I would play it down to +650.
The Pick: Jacob Malkoun wins by Decision (+900, 0.25u)
