Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 313

Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 313 article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC.
Pictured: Armen Petrosyan.

Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan will face off in the UFC 313 prelims on Saturday, March 8.

Here's my Ferreira vs. Petrosyan prediction.

Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan Odds, Prediction

Middleweight BoutOdds
Petrosyan Odds-135
Ferreira Odds+114
Over/under rounds2.5 (+130 / -166)

Projection: Armen Petrosyan (61.8%)

Brunno Ferreira is a popular underdog selection this week; the public data I use to create my projections had Ferreira at 65% on average across the samples.

Armen Petrosyan is the more natural middleweight (4" taller, 1" reach advantage) and also the more technical striker (+3.0 to +0.6 strike differential per minute) with better cardio – and I favor him heavily to win any extended contest.

Ferreira is likely drawing dead to a knockout in this fight, and Petrosyan should offer more output down the stretch, potentially finding a late finish.

Brunno has rare power that carries late into fights – but I don't trust his durability (after getting rocked three times in the UFC, including a knockout) – or his gas tank. Ferreira slows because he throws max effort into every technique – including takedowns – and I doubt he can hold Petrosyan down for an extended period of time.

Bet Petrosyan pre-fight to -150 (projected -162) and add more Live at a better number after Round 1.

I also show slight value on the fight to reach a decision (projected +142, listed +175 – compared to the middleweight average of 38% (+170 implied odds), with correlated value on Petrosyan to win by decision (projected +184, listed +270).

Bets

  • Armen Petrosyan (-135, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
  • Armen Petrosyan Live after Round 1

About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.

Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.