Check out the Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie pick for UFC 310 on Saturday, December 7, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie Odds
| Mitchell Odds | -850 |
| Gracie Odds | +575 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-250 / +190) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 310 odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 310 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
On the one hand, it's a little surprising to see main card billing for this featherweight fight. Neither Kron Gracie nor Bryce Mitchell have won a fight in the last year, and Gracie's last UFC win was in 2019.
On the other hand, two of the division's best and most exciting grapplers are meeting, with the potential for an extremely high-level grappling match. The downside is it could turn into a striking match between two fighters who struggle on their feet — but that's the risk we have to take.
The UFC is probably viewing this as a get-right spot for Mitchell, who was climbing the rankings before suffering a vicious knockout to Josh Emmett earlier in the year. It might not work out that way if Mitchell is bold and/or foolish enough to attempt to grapple with Jiu-Jitsu founder Helio Gracie's grandson.
Here's my Mitchell vs. Gracie pick and prediction.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Mitchell | Gracie | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-3 | 5-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:35 | 10:42 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 10/4/1994 | 6/11/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.30 | 3.74 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.63 | 6.82 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.45 | 0.47 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 25% |
| TD Def | 33% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 1.6 | 0.5 |
At a base level, the typical way I look to assess fights is by evaluating both fighters across the three realms that make up mixed martial arts. Those being striking, wrestling, and grappling.
Splitting up wrestling and grappling into separate categories is a bit confusing because wrestling is grappling, but for MMA they mean different things. Wrestling is the ability to take a fight to the mat (or prevent your opponent from doing so), while grappling is what happens once it's down there.
A fighter who has an edge in two of those three areas should win the fight. A better striker who can keep it standing wins on the feet, think the "sprawl and brawl" archetype popularized by Chuck Liddell among others.
A fighter who can win at striking range or submit you doesn't care where it goes (Anderson Silva, Charles Oliveira) while a fighter who can take you down and dominate you there usually does so (Khabib Nurmagomedov and the wave of similar fighters that followed him.)
Kron Gracie is interesting because he's one of the best in the world in one realm (grappling) but with almost no ability in the other two. Gracie has world championships in both gi Jiu-Jitsu and no gi grappling, winning at ADCC in 2013.
However, his complete lack of takedown ability limits him in mixed martial arts. He returned after a four-year layoff in 2023 to face Charles Jourdain, and didn't even officially attempt a takedown. Instead, he jumped guard multiple times, with Jourdain simply backing out anytime Gracie opened his guard to look for sweeps or submissions.
Gracie found occasional success on the feet striking with Cub Swanson, but was largely picked apart there.
Mitchell on the other hand has excellent grappling — but can also wrestle. He landed five takedowns on Dan Ige, and one on featherweight champion Ilia Topuria. He's also not a great striker as evidenced by the knockout from Emmett, though he's pretty clearly a step ahead of Gracie.
That means Mitchell has a clear edge on the feet, as well as the ability to decide where this fight takes place. That's why he's such a heavy favorite in this matchup.
Mitchell vs. Gracie Pick, Prediction
With all that said — Bryce Mitchell might be the one fighter crazy enough to willingly grapple with Kron Gracie. It doesn't take much googling to see what I mean, but among many other examples, he doesn't believe gravity is real.
On a less silly note, Mitchell could also be a bit gun-shy to exchange on the feet following the knockout by Emmett. It was one of the worst knockouts in recent memory, and likely has a lingering effect on Mitchell's chin. (I'd be remiss to not mention that Mitchell's thoughts on gravity came before said knockout.)
I'd take Kron Gracie in a straight grappling match over almost any 145 lbs fighter on the planet. I'd also make the odds of Mitchell trying to grapple with Gracie a lot closer than +600.
Therefore, I'm taking a sprinkle on Gracie to get it done here, with the best odds via Caesars at +600. It's a quarter-unit play for me.
Billy's Picks: Kron Gracie +600 (0.25u) Caesars
