Check out my Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal predictions, picks, and odds for UFC Vegas 102 on Saturday, February 15.
The UFC Vegas 102 co-main event features two fighters heading in very different directions.
Morocco's Youssef Zalal returned to the UFC in 2024 after being cut two years earlier and rattled off three straight submission wins.
Calvin Kattar was once a top-five featherweight but is winless in his last three fights dating back to June of 2022. That included a significant knee injury in his fight against Arnold Allen, from which he's yet to fully bounce back.
This is a chance for Kattar to prove he still has it — or for Zalal to show that the new and improved version in his second UFC run is a true contender.
Here's my Kattar vs. Zalal prediction.
Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal Odds, Prediction
| Kattar Odds | +370 |
| Zalal Odds | -485 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-230/+175) |
| Location | UFC Apex Center | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 102 odds via DraftKings as of Thursday. Bet on UFC Vegas 102 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Kattar | Zalal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-8 | 16-5-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:45 | 12:10 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 5/26/1988 | 9/4/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.76 | 2.84 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.75 | 1.81 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 65% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.39 | 2.34 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 35% |
| TD Def | 72% | 59% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.5 |
It's almost hard to believe that the Youssef Zalal we saw in 2024 is the same fighter that went 3-3-1 in his earlier Octagon stint. "The Moroccan Devil" came into the sport with a kickboxing base and largely struck it out on the feet throughout his early run.
Since then, he's reinvented himself as a dangerous submission artist, picking up takedowns in all three of his 2024 bouts and finishing them all via submission.
That's obviously been a more successful path for him, though at least some of the discrepancies in results have been due to the level of competition. In his first stint, he fought a debuting Ilia Topuria, among others, and is still the only man to take a round from the current champion unanimously.
His background as a striker is still there, though, setting up his most recent submission win over Jack Shore with a perfectly timed knee right as Shore shot for a takedown. That win still stands as Zalal's best in the UFC, making this a considerable step up — in theory — against a former top contender in Kattar.
Ironically, while Calvin Kattar is best known for his boxing in the UFC, his combat sports journey started as a wrestler. While not as highly credentialed as many UFC fighters, he was a high school state qualifier before transitioning to mixed martial arts.
Kattar uses his wrestling largely defensively, which, coupled with his length and reach, allows him to stay on the outside and pick his opponents apart. In 13 UFC fights, only three opponents were able to take Kattar down, and only Aljamain Sterling more than once.
Even Sterling was unable to do much with those takedowns, logging no official submission attempts nor putting Kattar in any real danger on the ground. While the eight takedowns look bad on paper, it also means Kattar was able to get back to his feet the vast majority of the time.
That's an interesting dynamic here against Zalal, who matches Kattar in reach and should have a speed advantage on the feet.
However, Kattar is the more technical striker, with an excellent jab and much better defense than his statistics indicate. He absorbed a UFC record 445 significant strikes in a five-round fight against Max Holloway in 2021, which continues to skew the numbers heavily.
If nothing else, that fight also speaks to Kattar's durability. He's been finished just twice in his professional career — a submission loss in 2008 and the knee injury against Arnold Allen. He's also never been knocked down inside the UFC.
Kattar vs. Zalal Prediction
While age and injury concerns certainly make Zalal the rightful favorite here, I was pretty surprised by how wide the line is. Zalal is a relatively low-volume striker who relies on submissions and big moments to win fights — and Kattar excels at limiting both of those.
Ordinarily, this would be the perfect spot to take the point spread on the underdog, banking on Kattar's volume to steal him a round. Unfortunately, DraftKings had the same thought, making Kattar's +3.5 line -115.
That's as big of a discrepancy as I've ever seen on a point spread relative to Kattar's +370 moneyline, making the latter worth the risk. Kattar should win more of the minutes here, and he has a shot to avoid the big moments from Zalal.
It also fits by heuristic of betting on fighters in their second fight back from an injury, as we can be reasonably confident they're close to full health — though Kattar's withdrawal from a September bout is slightly concerning, at +370 odds, it's a risk worth taking. I'd play it down to +325.
Billy's Pick: Calvin Kattar +370 (DraftKings/BetRivers) .5 units
