Carlos Prates vs. Neil Magny Odds, Pick, Prediction for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, November 9

Check out the Carlos Prates vs. Neil Magny odds for UFC Vegas 100 on Saturday, November 9, with my expert UFC picks and predictions.

On Saturday, the UFC will return to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 12-fight card. The card will feature an important main event in the welterweight division between No. 15 contender Neil Magny and rising prospect Carlos Prates.

The Brazilian-born Prates is undefeated in the UFC (4-0, including a win in a contender series) and has finished his past nine opponents. Prates has been unbeaten since 2019 but has had six career losses, including three by submission. Saturday will mark his first five-round fight or main event.

Magny is a well-rounded gatekeeper with a 22-11 promotional record. Saturday will mark his fourth UFC main event — the first three reached the championship rounds. Although he's the older fighter, Magny — who trains in Colorado — may have the better gas tank in an extended fight. Still, he's traded wins and losses in each of his past eight bouts and enters off a first-round knockout loss against Michael Morales.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on Prates vs. Magny, who should make their cage walks at approximately 8:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.

Carlos Prates vs. Neil Magny

Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape

Magny is the taller and longer fighter (2" advantage in both height and reach) and typically makes the most of his length. He has proven himself the more efficient striker (by the numbers) against a higher level of competition, out-landing his opponents by 0.5 strikes per round (vs. -0.7 for Prates) at distance for his career.

Moreover, Magny has all of the offensive grappling upside in this fight — and he's happy to mix in some takedowns, attempting 3.8 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance (40% accuracy). Magny will either look to stay on the outside — and use his long jab and low kicks to outpace his opponent on volume — or enter the clinch when he can press Prates up against the fence or initiate takedown attempts.

Prates ceded more than a minute of control time in his first two UFC fights (against Mitch Ramirez on contender series and Trevin Giles in his debut) but showed decent urgency scrambling to return to his feet. However, he also lost round one to Giles (trailed 35-24 on distance strikes, plus 98 seconds of control time) because of relative inactivity while making his reads.

Prates has more time to gather information in a five-round fight than a three-rounder, but his lack of urgency could eventually cost him against more durable competition; Prates has knocked out each of his UFC opponents to date.

Prates is much faster than Magny, six years younger, and carries a significant power advantage in this matchup. He comes from a Muay Thai background and is the far more technical striker too, regardless of Magny's historical data in the division.

Still, if Prates doesn't finish Magny early, the fight could tip toward the underdog down the stretch. Magny almost certainly has the better gas tank, and the earlier and more consistently Prates is forced to grapple, the more exhausted he might look in the championship rounds.

Magny, now 37, is in the later stages of his career, and his athleticism and explosiveness seem to have severely declined as early as his June 2023 fight against Phil Rowe (a likely undeserved split win). He's followed up that shaky performance by losing nearly every minute in three fights since: a 30-24 loss on one scorecard against Ian Garry (30-26 x2), losing 14 minutes against Mike Malott (out-landed 41-11 through two rounds), and looking uncompetitive with Morales.

I'd anticipate that Prates — staring down the possibility of five rounds for the first time — will continue to gather information and slowly pick apart his opponent rather than going for an immediate kill against a veteran with minimal KO power for the division.

Prates fights with low hands, explaining his sub-50% striking defense (48%) and was also KOed twice by regional opponents; two additional attributes that will cost him against higher-level competition. Still, a knockout win for Magny is almost certainly attritional, limiting his win condition to later iterations of this fight.

As a result, while he can be overly patient, I do expect a fresh Prates to secure the early rounds; however, Magny may have a chance to win the back half of his fight if he has any grappling success against an opponent who is relatively untested in those areas, especially at this level.

Unless you're betting Magny will win in Round 4 (+4900) or Round 5 (+5500), I'd want pre-fight positions allocated toward Prates; I will target Magny live after Round 3.

Magny vs. Prates Pick

I projected Carlos Prates as a -531 favorite (84.1% implied), and I expect the fight to go to a decision about 15.6% of the time (+543 implied). As a result, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total.

Moreover, aside from a stray Magny wins by decision prop at one book (projected +1302, listed +1700 at BetRivers), I don't project value in the winning method market.

Prates is a low of -275 (75.3% implied) to win by KO/TKO and a high of -400 (80% implied). I couldn't get that line past -251 (71.5% implied), combining his projected win rate (84.1%) with a KO/TKO as 85% of his win condition.

However, given his typical stalking pace — which he'll continue to emphasize in his first main event — I like Prates to win in Round 2 (+360) or Round 3 (+700) or by KO/TKO in either of those rounds (+410 and +800, respectively) for small stakes.

And I'd fire a live bet on Magny if he's still around, but Prates is slowing heading into the championship rounds.

Zerillo's Picks

Carlos Prates wins by KO/TKO in Round 2 (+410, 0.15u) at FanDuel
Carlos Prates wins by KO/TKO in Round 3 (+800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
Neil Magny Live after Round 3