Carlos Ulberg vs. Fabio Cherant Odds
Carlos Ulberg and Fabio Cherant will meet in a Light Heavyweight scrap that seems destined to end finish Saturday at UFC 271.
Both fighters are inexperienced in the UFC — Ulberg is just 1-1 in his two fights and Cherant is 0-3 — but the common thread between the two men is neither one has made it to the scorecards yet.
Will that stat hold in this bout? I take a look at how these two match up and where the betting value is in this fight below.
Tale of the Tape
| Ulberg | Cherant | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 7-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:11 | 3:39 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/7/90 | 11/25/94 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 15.07 | 2.01 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 8.60 | 5.57 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 34% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Along with Blood Diamond, Ulberg is the other Adesanya teammate appearing on Saturday's undercard. The handsome kickboxer suffered ran out of gas in his UFC debut while attempting to finish his opponent, landing 146 strikes (64% accuracy) in eight minutes against Kennedy Nzechukwu before eating a counter hook and falling midway through the second round.
Ulberg displayed excellent offensive acumen, but couldn't overcome Kennedy's durability, and he took his first career loss as a result.
It's difficult to say that Ulberg has bad cardio — he emptied the tank trying to finish a wobbled opponent and couldn't close the show. If he's more reserved in this fight, he should have plenty of gas in the tank to fight for 15 minutes. Moreover, Cherant's durability (and length) is nowhere near what Kennedy offered.
In his debut, Ulberg ceded an inch of height and six inches of reach. Against Cherant, he'll possess a 3-inch advantage in both categories.
Ulberg is the far better striker, and he throws a ton of volume, so Cherant, who is not a wrestler, has a difficult path to winning minutes, and his path to victory is likely limited to a finish.
Ulberg tends to leave his head on the center line and I could see Cherant finishing him with a big shot, but the "Water Buffalo" may be better served trying to pull guillotine, or look for a takedown and try to kill the clock because he should get picked apart at range.
Ulberg vs. Cherant Pick
I project moneyline value on Ulberg (projected 74%, -283 implied), but I don't show value on the total or any winning method props for this fight. That said, my initial read was Ulberg wins inside the distance (projected -145).
Ulberg to win in Round 1 (+175) might be the best plus-money play on this fight, but that price is likely too short considering the potential that he fights more conservatively after his most recent performance. I would need +200 or better to make that bet. I'll Ulberg as a parlay piece instead.
The Pick: ML Parlay — Carlos Ulberg-Ronnie Lawrence (-260)
