Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski Odds, Prediction
| Njokuani Odds | +170 |
| Zaleski Odds | -205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-120/-110) |
| Location | UFC Apex | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 104 odds via DraftKings as of Thursday. Bet on UFC Vegas 104 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski predictions, picks and odds for UFC Vegas 104 on Saturday, March 15
This weekend's co-main event features two veteran welterweights known for putting on fun fights. While neither man is a ranked fighter at this point, both come in off of wins in their recent bouts, and appear to have plenty left in the tank in their late 30s.
Here's my Njokunai vs. Zaleski prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Njokuani | Zaleski | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-10 | 25-8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:42 | 11:59 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/31/1988 | 12/11/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.59 | 4.33 |
| SS Accuracy | 63% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.67 | 3.41 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 0.7 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 20% |
| TD Def | 74% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Elizeu Zaleski "Capoeira" dos Santos is entering his tenth year in the UFC. In that time, the 38 year old has never been a top contender, but still brings a solid 11-4-1 record into the fight.
As his nickname implies, Zaleski is a creative striker who has picked up wins via wheel kick and flying knee, with 15 of his 25 pro wins coming via knockout. What stands out about Zaleski's game is that he's not just flashy — he also has extremely solid striking fundamentals.
Zaleski operates behind a high guard, working his way in with straight shots and leg kicks before looking for flashier attacks. While his kicks and knees are certainly more exciting, he has plenty of power in his hands as well — as he proved with a first round knockout over Zach Scroggins in his last appearance.
That's somewhat atypical for dynamic strikers like Zaleski, who typically leave bigger openings for their opponents. Zaleskia can get overwhelmed by bigger and more athletic opponents at times, but overall has very solid defensive numbers, especially for a somewhat undersized welterweight whose fights typically play out on the feet.
Zaleski is also a capable grappler offensively, and will occasionally lean on a grappling heavy gameplan. On the other hand, his defensive grappling leaves something to be desired, as he'll find himself stuck on his back against wrestlers who force the issue.
Of course, that's not much of a concern against Chidi Njokuani. "Bang Bang" is officially 0 for 4 on takedowns in seven UFC fights. Some of those credited attempts weren't earnest efforts to take the fight to the ground so much as rhythm disruptions for his opponent.
He is a bigger, stronger, more athletic welterweight than Zaleski, though. After suffering three straight losses at middleweight, the 6'3" Njokuani dropped to welterweight in 2024, picking up decision wins over Jared Gooden and Rhys McKee.
While those were both clear wins, neither were especially impressive, especially considering Gooden and McKee are a combined 2-9 in the UFC. Because of that, it's fair to question if dropping to 170 at his age was the right move, or he simply benefited from a softer strength of schedule.
Much of the explosive ability Njokuani showed as a middleweight seemed to be absent in his welterweight fights, but he managed range well and seemed unaffected by the weight cut from a cardio standpoint. Njokuani did miss weight for this fight, though, so perhaps the cut is starting to have a bigger impact than it did previously. His length and volume will be somewhat difficult for Zaleski to deal with, but not an entirely novel problem from the Brazilian.
Njokuani's defensive grappling is solid enough that he should have no issue surviving the grappling exchanges. With that said, Zaleski could mix in a takedown or two to cement an otherwise close round, even if Njokuani is able to remain relatively unscathed from bottom position.
Njokuani vs. Zaleski Prediction
While this line feels a bit wide towards Zaleski, I'm having a hard time believing in the welterweight version of Njokuani.
Dropping weight classes in your mid 30s typically doesn't work out well for fighters, between the added stress of the weight cut and the faster, more skilled opponents usually found in lighter divisions.
Njokuani was fortunate to not be matched against anyone fitting that description so far at 170 lbs, but that changes this weekend. Zaleski has shown no signs of slowing down at his age, and has more paths to a victory than Njokuani.
However, I'm not laying the -200 or so moneyline on the favorite. Instead, I'm taking his -3.5 point spread, which pays out with a 30-27 scorecard in a unanimous decision win or a finish. That line is -115 at DraftKings, and I'd also be interested in his +150 inside the distance odds.
Billy's Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -3.5 Spread -115 (DraftKings)
