Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda will face off in the UFC 313 early prelims on Saturday, March 8.
Here's my Gutierrez vs. Casteneda prediction.
Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda Odds, Prediction
| Featherweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gutierrez Odds | -115 |
| Castaneda Odds | -105 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-330 / +240) |
Projection: Chris Gutierrez (51.2%)
John Castaneda – who was supposed to fight on last week's APEX card until his opponent had an issue at weigh-ins – is the shorter man in this short-notice fight (3" height discrepancy). Still, he owns a four-inch reach advantage at distance and virtually all of the grappling upside in this matchup against Chris Gutierrez.
In the UFC, Castaneda has controlled 73% of grappling exchanges, compared to 17% for Gutierrez. Gutierrez is the far more efficient striker (+3.1 to -0.8 strike differential per minute at distance) with better cardio. However, Gutierrez doesn't offer much power, making it difficult to separate in competitive rounds.
Ultimately, I don't project value on either side of this matchup; however, I would consider betting Gutierrez if the line flips and he moves to plus money; getting back to a full-sized octagon as opposed to the smaller APEX cage should benefit his point-fighting style.
I do have a slight lean toward the goes to decision prop at current odds (projected -309, listed -295), despite a 60% decision rate (-150 implied) for the division. I don't give Gutierrez much finishing upside, but he's also proven to be highly durable.
Bets
- Parlay: Over 2.5 Rounds & Carlos Leal (-200, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -200
