Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez Odds, Prediction
| Brundage Odds | +102 |
| Marquez Odds | -122 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (+114/-145) |
| Location | UFC Apex | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 103 odds via DraftKings as of Thursday, Feb. 27. Bet on UFC Vegas 103 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez predictions, picks, and odds for UFC Vegas 103 on Saturday, March 1.
The UFC's insatiable desire for middleweight fights at the top of cards has hit a zenith this week. Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez both have losing records in the promotion, and neither had won a fight since at least 2023 — yet they "earned" a co-main event.
From a betting standpoint, at least we have a fairly close line, with Marquez slightly favored following some early week line movement towards Brundage. Here's my Brundage vs. Marquez prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Brundage | Marquez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-6 | 9-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:54 | 8:02 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/16/1994 | 5/8/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.62 | 4.85 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.63 | 5.06 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.31 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 0% |
| TD Def | 68% | 53% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 2.6 |
Evaluating Cody Brundage is incredibly hard.
He's officially 2-1-1 across his past four fights, but aside from a submission loss to Bo Nickal each of those fights has involved somewhat fluky outcomes. Two of those fights — one ruled a DQ win for Brundage and the other a no contest — ended with Brundage unable to continue after taking illegal shots to the back of the head.
Brundage was fairly lucky to get those results, since he was also hurt by legal strikes in both fights. Additionally, shots to the back of the head are the MMA equivalent of holding penalties in football. We probably could call them every fight, but they often go overlooked.
Even Brundage's legitimate win in that time frame was somewhat concerning. He was locked into a deep triangle by Zach Reese, but finished Reese with a slam knockout when Reese forgot to hook Brundage's leg. The win shoed impressive athleticism from Brundage, but a concerning lack of submission defense in the first place.
Which might be the best summary of Brundage's skill set to this point. A former college wrestler, Brundage throws heavy shots on the feet before exploding in for takedowns. Once on the mat he's often playing with fire, looking for damage but exposing himself to potential submissions.
On the feet, Brundage throws heavy strikes, but without much volume or technique. That makes him dangerous in the early goings, but puts a fairly heavy toll on his gas tank if forced to strike for extended periods. His lack of volume also hurts him with the judges. In ten UFC fights, Brundage has landed single digit strikes in seven of them — with three of those fights making it to the second round or longer.
However, Brundage's power could be an asset against Marquez. "The Cuban Missle Crisis" has fought just once in each of the last three years, with all three ending in knockout losses. That's obviously not ideal, though on the bright side his infrequent appearances mean he's at least taking proper recovery time after suffering damage.
Marquez has a similar brawling style on the feet as Brundage, though with considerably more volume. He's yet to score a knockout win in the UFC (though he has one on the Contender Series), but it certainly isn't for lack of trying.
His real strength lies in his submission grappling. Marquez will typically look for submissions after hurting his opponent on the feet, particularly if he can force them into a bad takedown attempt. All three of his UFC wins have came via submissions.
I'd like to see Marquez — also a former college wrestler — grapple more proactively generally speaking. He's yet to land a takedown in the UFC, and forcing the issue likely would've helped him in some of his knockout losses.
However, against an opponent like Brundage who's a higher level wrestler, it's unlikely Marquez would be able to land takedowns anyway.
Brundage vs. Marquez Prediction
One factor that could be important in this fight is the fact that Marquez and Brundage are former training partners. Marquez moved to Factory X in Colorado following the closure of Glory MMA in Kansas City, where Brundage has been a long time pupil.
Marquez has moved camps prior to this fight, but there's obviously a level of familiarity between the two due to their shared training for a few years. That can sometimes lead to both fighters being a bit more cautious with each other, either subconsciously or because both have a level of respect for their partners strengths.
On top of that, this could easily be a fight where Brundage tries to win via control time, taking down Marquez but being wary of the submission threat leading to stalemates on the ground. On the feet, Brundage's low output also reduces the odds of him finding Marquez's chin.
The market has aggressively priced an early stoppage, with the under 1.5 rounds favored at all books. I disagree, so I'll take the over 1.5 Rounds at +120, with an additional sprinkle on the fight going to decision at +325.
Billy's Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds +120 (BetRivers) | Fight Goes to Decision +325 (ESPNBet)
