Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov Odds
The No. 15-ranked Bantamweight challenger, Cody Stamann, returns to the Octagon to face Said Nurmagomedov on the main card at UFC 270.
Stamann began his UFC career 3-0 over an eight-month span, but has been up-and-down in his six fights since, going 2-3-1 with back-to-back losses entering Saturday's bout. Nurmagomedov hasn't fought since scoring a first-round knockout in October 2020.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Stamann | Nurmagomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-4-1 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:18 | 8:20 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135.5 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 64" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/9/89 | 4/5/92 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.03 | 4.65 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.36 | 2.37 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.80 | 0.45 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 7% |
| TD Def | 75% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
I suspect that Nurmagomedov might be overvalued here based purely on name value. However, he is not related to Khabib, and he has a completely different fighting style.
Unlike his more famous compatriot, Said prefers to keep his fights standing and strikes from range where he possesses a 6-inch reach advantage over his upcoming opponent.
Said NURMAGOMEDOV 🔥
Il tentera de faire son entrée dans le TOP 15, samedi sur la carte principale !#UFC270
— La Sueur (@LaSueur_off) January 20, 2022
Nurmagomedov should be the more efficient striker (+2.38 to +0.67 strike differential). Still, Stamann, who has competed at Featherweight, should be the much bigger man in the cage against a former Flyweight, and he possesses significant grappling upside.
Stamann is reliable to shoot takedowns (2.80 landed per 15 minutes, 44% accuracy) after applying forward pressure with his boxing. He won't simply let Nurmagomedov pick him apart from the outside without trying to drag this fight to the mat — and the Russian certainly leaves openings for takedowns with his wild arsenal of spinning attacks.
Nurmagomedov's scrambling is excellent, and he's challenging to hold down. Still, suppose Stamann can land three or four takedowns in this fight. In that case, the scorecards are going to be very close — the American has a habit of keeping fights competitive, even when outclassed against top-flight competition like Aljamain Sterling, Jimmie Rivera, and Merab Dvalishvili.
Stamann vs. Nurmagomedov Pick
While his durability and cardio are both excellent, Stamann doesn't possess much finishing upside — even when he does win rounds, they tend to be close.
Nurmagomedov seemingly possesses much more finishing upside in this fight, but if Stamann can survive and land takedowns, he could do enough to secure the decision.
I projected Stamann at +138 (42.1% implied), and I'm happy to bet his moneyline down to +150 (40% implied).
However, I show as much value on Stamann's odds of winning by decision (projected +180, listed +260), and I will split my stake between those two wagers.
Furthermore, I show value on the Over 2.5 rounds, or the fight to go the distance prop (projected -322), but that outcome is far more correlated to the Stamann side.
The Pick: Cody Stamann ML (+155) | Stamann by Decision (+260)
