Colby Thicknesse will face off against Aleksandre Topuria on the UFC 312 prelims on Saturday, Feb. 8.
Thicknesse (7-0) will be making his UFC debut, as will Topuria (5-1). Both fighters enter having finished their last three opponents.
Here's my Thicknesse vs. Topuria prediction.
Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria Odds
| Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Topuria Odds | -340 |
| Thicknesse Odds | +270 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (-140 / +110) |
UFC 312 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 312 with our DraftKings promo code.
Thicknesse vs. Topuria Prediction, Pick
Aleksandre Topuria — brother of Ilia — will make his UFC debut on Saturday with the bantamweight champion in his corner.
Topuria was initially supposed to face Cody Haddon but will instead draw Colby Thicnkesse — one of Alexander Volkanovski's training partners — on short notice.
While this isn't the Topuria-Volkanovski rematch many would like to see (I think it goes down similarly as the first fight if not worse for Volk) this prelim should get the competitive juices flowing for both the future hall of famers in either corner.
We don't have a ton of recent footage on the 29-year-old Topuria, who has won three fights — each in less than half a round — since 2015, and the first two opponents had a combined record of 8-28-1.
Determining how his athleticism will translate to the UFC level is also challenging. Ilia is an elite athlete –in the top one percent of the UFC, if not the world. He combines incredible power with fast-twitch speed and is exceptionally durable.
Conversely, Aleksandre was knocked out in 2015 (albeit at age 20), before his six-year absence from the sport, and it's difficult to tell how his power and explosiveness — displayed against the lowest of low-level regional competition — will translate to a substantially higher level. Moreover, his gas tank is a mystery; he hasn't seen a second round in a pro fight in nearly ten years.
Thicknesse is seemingly well-rounded, but he's a much lesser athlete. Still, if he can survive the opening frame, he may have better cardio, and the Aussie is worth a live wager after five minutes.
I lean toward a contrarian Over or goes to decision wager in this fight, with the bout at +240 (29.4%) to reach a decision — compared to a divisional average of about 48%.
Bet Over 1.5 Rounds to -135, play the distance prop to +220 (projected +209), and get down with the Thicknesse live after Round 1.
Picks:
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-122, 0.25u) at BallyBet; bet to -135
- Fight Goes to Decision (+230, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +225
- Colby Thicknesse Live after Round 1
