Dan Hooker vs. Nasrat Haqparast Odds
| Hooker Odds | -160 |
| Haqparast Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / -110) |
| Venue | T-Mobile Arena |
| Time | Approx. 9 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here | |
After being knocked out by title challenger Michael Chandler, Dan Hooker returns to the octagon to fight Nasrat Haqparast. The prelim fight should be plenty competitive and has come with a bit of fanfare during fight week.
Oddly, both fighters had to jump through hoops and ladders to get their visas approved to work in the United States this weekend. Against all odds, the Hail Mary paid off and both fighters obtained their visas.
Moreover, they impressively made weight on Friday morning officially confirming this war between two lightweight contenders. Let's dig more into the matchup and where the value lies.
Tale of the Tape
| Hooker | Haqparast | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-10 | 13-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:22 | 11:41 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 72" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/13/90 | 8/22/95 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.95 | 5.81 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.92 | 3.23 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 74% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.72 | 0.18 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 16% |
| TD Def | 79% | 84% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Haqparast has been highly thought of for most of his career. He turned pro at 17 years old and is just 26. Nasrat fancies himself as a boxer. He is not a grappling specialist and rarely throws kicks.
His results have been very good up until this point besides a flash knockout loss to Drew Dober. At his best, Nasrat Haqparast will overwhelm you with volume and a seemingly limitless gas tank.
The Afghanistan native has a very strong pedigree where he trains at TriStar MMA. Tristar is headquartered in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The gym is owned by arguably the best MMA coach, Firas Zahabi, and home to UFC Hall of Famer, Georges St. Pierre.
The pedigree for Nasrat as a prospect is obviously massive but his opponent is nothing to sneeze at either. Dan Hooker loves getting into stand-up battles. The veteran has been in many wars during his career (see Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker).
Hooker is an excellent boxer himself and likely the better grappler of the two — although neither fighter plans to grapple much. If used properly, Hooker's kicks could provide issues for Haqparast.
Hooker vs. Haqparast Pick
Nasrat has been a big favorite in five of his seven UFC fights. His average odds in those 5 fights are -419.6 (80.75% implied).
Hooker had a 5-round war with Dustin Poirier where he needed to seek immediate medical attention afterward. The videos of it are rather scary. Unfortunately, he was knocked out in the first round in his very next fight after the Dustin Poirier fight.
One of my real worries is that Hooker has been feeling the effects of the war he had with Poirier. His lack of activity makes me unsure if he's willing to get into anymore high volume boxing matches.
Nasrat has long been thought of as a top-tier prospect who could be a contender with a little seasoning. The young Nasrat throws plenty of shots and Hooker's chin appears to be questionable at this stage of his career.
Haqparast has 0 wins by submission in his MMA career and prefers stand-up battles. I believe that he should be able to go in there as an underdog and win this fight with his high-volume striking.
Nasrat to win this fight by decision is +350 which is a solid value. I had Haqparast by decision capped closer to +310 pre-lines.
In the case that Hooker's chin truly has deteriorated, I will take by KO or decision as well at +130 on DraftKings for a little extra bump in value. I would bet that down to his moneyline number, obviously, a submission is extremely unlikely here.
Both plays are excellent in terms of value so I will put half a unit on each with the hope that both are correct.
The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast by decision +350 | Haqparast by KO or decision +130
