Dan Ige vs. Movsar Evloev Odds
On Saturday, a top-10 Featherweight ranking spot will be at stake as No. 10 ranked Dan Ige faces No. 13 Movsar Evloev in the co-main event at UFC Vegas 56.
After riding a seven-fight winning streak to a No. 1 contender matchup with Calvin Kattar, just two years ago, Ige has lost three of his past four bouts.
Evloev is undefeated (15-0) for his career with a 5-0 record in the octagon – all by way of decision.
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday’s matchup and utilize those factors to bet on the main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Ige | Evloev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-5 | 15-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:59 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/6/91 | 2/11/94 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.90 | 4.32 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.47 | 2.79 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg. | 1.35 | 4.0 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 47% |
| TD Def | 55% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Ige's takedown defense (55% career) will be crucial in this matchup. Evloev wrestles at a high volume (4 takedowns per 15 minutes, 47% accuracy) and is adept at controlling opponents on the mat.
Evloev has 75 minutes of fight time in the UFC and has spent nearly 30 minutes (29:57) controlling his opponents by grappling, roughly 40% of his fight time.
He's an efficient striker (+1.53 significant strike margin; combined 107% striking accuracy and defense) who does well to create openings by maintaining the takedown threat.
Still, Evloev doesn't offer significant power and carries a relatively low knockout probability on the feet. If Ige can stay upright, he'll undoubtedly be a live underdog. He's the much bigger hitter and has had competitive striking matches with the likes of Calvin Kattar and Edson Barboza. Moreover, Evloev doesn't seem exceptionally durable — Hakeem Dawodu hurt him, and Ige carries enough power to wobble most Featherweights.
That said, Ige could have difficulty keeping this fight on the feet. The Honolulu native was manhandled by Chang Sung Jung ("The Korean Zombie"), permitting three takedowns and spending 40% of their main event fight in control positions.
Ige has a BJJ blackbelt and can competently defend submissions. Still, he's not an excellent scrambler, and each takedown could be a full round in Evloev's favor. That said, Evloev came close to tapping against Nick Lentz — and Ige has enough grappling chops to threaten submissions if he manages to find a dominant position on the mat.
Evloev is a grinder. He'll look to rinse and repeat with takedown attempts, push Ige up against the cage, or control him for long stretches on the mat. His style isn't fan-friendly, but it's very effective at winning minutes and securing decisions — mainly if he can take and hold Ige's back for long stretches of the fight.
Both men offer excellent cardio, and the fight should reach a decision at a high clip. While Evloev could have difficulty living up to his steep price tag, considering his limited finishing upside, it's difficult to envision him losing two rounds in this fight so long as he can secure takedowns; unless he's knocked down multiple times.
While Ige is well-rounded enough to make this fight competitive, a knockout could be his likeliest win condition.
Ige vs. Evloev Pick
I projected Movsar Evloev as nearly an 80% favorite in this fight (-390 implied), and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.
Furthermore, I expect this fight to go to a decision (or the distance) 74% of the time (-283 implied), and I don't see value on either side of the total or the distance prop (-350 Yes, +225 No).
Concerning winning method props, I set Evloev's decision equity at 80% and projected his odds to win by decision 63.7% (-175 implied),
As a result, I bet Evloev by decision at -150 (60% implied) at Bet365; I would lay that number up to -161 (61.7%) at a two percent edge.
The Pick: Movsar Evloev wins by Decision (-150)
