Dan Ige and Sean Woodson will face off in the UFC 314 prelims on Saturday, April 12.
Here's my Ige vs. Woodson prediction.
Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson Odds, Prediction
| Featherweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ige Odds | +150 |
| Woodson Odds | -175 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-260/+190) |
Projection: Woodson 60.7%
Sean Woodson has a significant size advantage over most featherweights, including Dan Ige (7" taller, 7" reach advantage).
Ige is the more powerful athlete, but Woodson maintains higher striking output and efficiency, landing 7.6 strikes per minute at distance (+2.3 strike differential per minute) compared to 4.2 for Ige (neutral strike differential).
The discrepancy between Ige's power and Woodson's output could create an interesting dynamic with the judges, where Woodson clearly lands more volume. Still, Ige potentially has the more impactful moments and steals a decision with power optics.
Ige can't oblige Woodson's preferred range kickboxing match – he needs to close the distance and get inside the pocket, where he can hurt Woodson, who has previously been wobbled and clipped, and struggled with pressure fighters. Moreover, Ige should look to mix in some offensive takedowns (averages 1.8 attempts per five minutes at distance) to neutralize Woodson's output.
From a betting perspective, I align with the moneyline and total, and only show slight value on Ige to win by decision (projected +347, listed +390) in the prop market, which you can either poke or use as a round-robin piece.
Still, I lean toward the underdog, who is both more durable and carries bigger knockout power, and would consider a small wager on Ige's moneyline (+150 or better).
Bets
- Dan Ige (+165, 0.15u) at Caesars (bet to +160)
- Dan Ige wins by Decision (+410, 0.1u) at FanDuel
