Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 10 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, October 15, fight card.
DWCS Season 8 Episode 10 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. Tonight's event marks the season finale of Contender Series, which is expected to return next summer.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent. Through nine DWCS events this season, the UFC has signed 38 fighters to contracts.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 10 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 10 Odds & Best Bets
Welterweights: Mohamed Ado (+142) vs. Jonathan Micallef (-170)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:05 p.m. ET
The Contender Series is going out with a bang – at least from a betting standpoint – with all five fights on this card fairly evenly matched. That includes the opener, in which Mohamed Ado is a slight underdog across the market.
The Canadian is 5-0 with five finishes, the last four of which have been submissions. His toughest opponent had a 6-2 record, and while Ado picked up a first-round submission win, it was a rocky road to get there. He was hit with five or six judo throws, escaped from most of them, and then got caught in a deep armbar that he escaped through a combination of sheer toughness and sloppy fundamentals from his opponent before getting the submission of his own.
On the plus side, the reason we're seeing so many grappling exchanges from Ado is because that nobody wants to strike with him. He picked up a head-kick knockout in his pro debut (with no amateur experience) against a 4-0 opponent, and word got out. He has lightning-quick kicks, especially to the legs, which turn most of his opponents into grapplers.
That he's able to still win despite being taken out of his comfort zone is another testament to Ado's abilities. He's also shown rapid improvement with just four years of MMA training after moving to Canada from his native Niger, where he was exclusively a kickboxer.
Australia's Jonathan "Jono" Micallef is the former Hex Fight Series welterweight champion, losing his title by fourth-round knockout earlier this year. Hex frustratingly doesn't post full fight videos (nor are they available on UFC Fight Pass), so the best tape I could find on Micallef was highlight clips.
He seems to prefer to strike, but he's comfortable shooting for takedowns, especially upon taking damage. He's at least solid once it gets to the mat, where he has a pair of submission wins.
Micallef's not quite as quick with his strikes as Ado, but he's bigger (both length and weight) and throws solid straight punches. I could see Ado having a hard time closing the range and getting caught off balance while trying to land his signature leg kicks.
The lack of film on Micallef makes this one a tough fight to break down. I wanted to get there with Ado, who seems to be the better overall athlete. However, the size and experience (he also had six amateur fights) of Micallef are a lot to overcome.
The best price is -138 at BetRivers, but I wouldn't go much beyond that.
Prediction: Jonathan Micallef defeats Mohamed Ado via decision
Billy's Bet: Jonathan Micallef (-138 at Betway)
Women's Strawweight: Leslie Hernandez (-118) vs. Julieta Martinez (-102)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
The UFC has a pair of intriguing strawweight prospects competing on the final DWCS card of the season. Mexico's Leslie Hernandez was a decorated amateur boxer who was part of Mexico's Olympic team heading into the postponed 2020 Olympics. Julieta Martinez is an undefeated fighter who was signed to the UFC developmental program at the UFC Performance Institute in Mexico City.
Based on the tape I watched, this is a surprisingly high-level fight between two women who could both easily compete with (at least) the lower half of the UFC's 115-pound strawweight division.
The 20-year-old Martinez made her pro debut last May and has already racked up seven consecutive wins (including six stoppages) in her young career. Just two of those opponents had winning records, though one was 7-0 Fatima Juarez.
"The Ninja Ferret" competed in taekwondo as a youth, and it's reflected in her flashy kicks and bouncy footwork. However, unlike some TKD stylists, she has a solid grasp of striking fundamentals and carries her hands high while avoiding damage well.
More importantly, Martinez has also clearly worked hard at her ground game. She competes in jiu-jitsu competitions and has picked up two pro armbar victories plus one via ground and pound. Her grappling is a bit raw (she effectively took herself down against Juarez), but she's not without ability, showing some slick sweeps and guard passes in that fight.
Martinez's best trait might be her natural athleticism, as she's extremely strong and explosive relative to the division. I worry about her ability to maintain that in an extended fight, though she has a decision win on her record. She largely controlled that one on the ground and was fading on the feet in the final round, but still got the victory.
Her opponent, "Dora The Destroyer" Hernandez, will likely have the cardio (and certainly has the nickname) edge here. Hernandez's classic boxing style is much easier to sustain over the long run, and she operates with smooth footwork and snappy jabs.
Hernandez's adapted her stance well for MMA, without the bladed stance or forward-shifted weight that invites takedowns and leg kicks. She also mixes in the occasional teep and leg kick with solid skills in the Thai clinch. She was also able to win a round in her recent LFA fight with a takedown, though she was fighting a kickboxer – and ended up on her back at the end of the frame.
The combination of struggling with the diverse attack of a kickboxer and less-developed ground game is a tough one to overcome against Martinez, however. With that said, I'm not willing to lay the juice on a fighter whose cardio scares me.
Instead, let's grab Martinez to win by finish prefight at +250 at Betway, though I suspect we'll find a juicier price when other books post their props. I'll also be looking to jump on Hernandez live if the line blows up following the first round.
Prediction: Julieta Martinez defeats Leslie Hernandez by TKO
Billy's Bet: Julieta Martinez by finish (+250 at BetRivers)
Featherweights: Yadier DelValle (+114) vs. Antonio Monteiro (-135)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:50 p.m. ET
In terms of competitor quality, this might be the best DWCS card of the season. We now move to men's featherweight, where Yadier DelValle meets Antonio Monteiro.
DelValle is 7-0 with a win over fellow Season 10 DWCS competitor Michael Aswell (the first loss of Aswell's career). He's fought fairly stiff competition throughout his career. "The Cuban Problem" is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with extensive judo experience as a youth in Cuba.
He's spent some time at lightweight (155 pounds) and now has a big frame for 145 pounds. On the feet, the southpaw likes to fire straight lefts and rear leg kicks at range with solid power on his attacks. On the downside, he gets sloppy when forced to plant his feet and exchange or fight backing up. His cardio also suffers when he isn't leading the dance.
While I was generally impressed by his ground game and creative submission attack, DelValle also has an annoying reliance on the guillotine. He's trapped himself in bad positions because of it – perhaps overly encouraged by the first-round win he scored with the submission against an 11-10 opponent earlier this year.
Doing so this time would be a mistake against the experienced Monteiro, who's 17-4-1 across 22 professional fights, all before turning 30. Also holding a BJJ black belt, he trains at the resurgent Nova Unaio gym in Rio de Janeiro.
Monteiro's last win was a 25-minute decision victory for the Shooto featherweight title, where he looked strong even into the fifth round. That means no cardio issues here.
He has the classic aggressive muay Thai and jiu-jitsu style often seen from Brazilian fighters, though with solid offensive wrestling as well. Ironically, he found himself in top position in two of the rounds of his title win thanks to guillotine attempts from his opponent – but he was able to control the fight from there.
Monteiro's pressure and pace are a tough match up for DelValle, who won't have the luxury of superior grappling as an escape valve if the pressure gets to be too much. I'd be happy betting the Brazilian at close to a pick'em, but let's have some fun with this one.
Look for DelValle to fade down the stretch and for Monteiro to pick up a late finish. I'm splitting my exposure between Rounds 2 and 3 with a quarter unit on each. Hard Rock Sportsbook has market-best lines at +850 for Round 2 and +1400 for Round 3. (Betway isn't fair behind at +800 and +1200.)
Monteiro and Over 1.0 round as a same-game parlay on DraftKings would also be a reasonable – and safer – option.
Prediction: Antonio Monetiero defeats Yadier DelValle via KO
Billy's Bets: Antonio Monteiro in Round 2 (+850 at Hard Rock, 0.25u) | Monteiro in Round 3 (+1400 at Hard Rock, 0.25u)
Flyweights: Nick Piccininni (-130) vs. Luis Gurule (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
The last time Nick Piccininni was on the Contender Series, he came into the bout as a heavy favorite despite accepting the fight on just a few days' notice. I tried to get cute and bet him to pick up a first career knockout, but instead, he won a split decision.
The original plan was to run that fight back since Dana White thought the wrong man ended with his hand raised. That's not happening because Jack Duffy was injured in training and is unable to compete.
Which means this time, Luis Gurule is stepping in on short notice. The market thinks this will be a tougher test for Piccininni with the line basically a toss-up.
We already covered Piccininni's skill set (see the linked article above), and I didn't really learn much from his earlier DWCS bout, so let's take a look at 9-0 Luis Gurule to see how he matches up.
The Fury FC flyweight champ picked up that 125-pound title just over three weeks ago, winning via submission in the fourth round against a 36-year-old opponent with an 11-10 record. That's not an encouraging sentence, though it's perhaps a bit harsh to the opponent in question: two-time DWCS competitor Jacob Silva.
Gurule is a pressure fighter who marches forward throughout his bouts. He was clearly pacing himself in the early goings of his title challenge, pawing at his opponent with light strikes while trying to claim the center of the cage.
On the one hand the forward pressure will help against the wrestling of Piccininni if he can maintain it. However, Gurule fights fairly upright and carries his hands high, both of which make it easier to land takedowns against him. The fact that he wasn't forced to defend takedowns in any of his Fury FC fights is telling – the promotion seemed to put him in favorable striking matchups.
Which he won't have here against the three-time All-American wrestler. Add in the short-notice call-up for Gurue, and Piccininni is the obvious side here. The best line is -130 at Caesars Sportsbook, but I'd play it to -140.
Prediction: Nick Piccininni defeats Luis Gurule by decision
Billy's Bet: Nick Piccininni (-130 at Caesars)
Middleweights: Nick Klein (+142) vs. Heraldo Souza (-170)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:40 p.m. ET
Nick Klein is now the third opponent booked for Heraldo Souza in tonight's DWCS main event after his first two bouts fell through. That makes it relatively apparent whom the UFC is more interested in, but of course, he still needs to win the fight.
The Brazilian is 9-1-1 as a pro with eight of Souza's wins inside the distance. He's (unsurprisingly) a BJJ black belt with five of those nine wins coming via submission. It's worth noting that he fought exclusively at welterweight until last November, with just two of his fights coming in the heavier 185-pound middleweight division.
On the feet, Souza looks for one or two big shots while throwing heavy and flashy strikes infrequently. That leaves some openings defensively, especially for counterstrikers willing to wait out his flurries.
Souza has big power when he lands, though, and it's played up well at his new weight class. Both of his middleweight wins came via knockout, most recently in the first round.
As you'd guess, Souza is an absolute monster on the mat with roughly a decade of black belt-level BJJ competition experience. He also struggles to get the fight there with some sloppy attempts from range in the limited tape I could find, as well as a habit of pulling guard in BJJ competition.
His opponent, Klein, is the least experienced of the potential Souza opponents with just a 5-1 pro MMA record. However, he also fought eight times as an amateur. He seems to be unrelated to The Ultimate Fighter 7 competitor Nick Klein despite both men being from Wisconsin.
The former 205-pound light heavyweight will have size on his side against Souza with a slight edge in height and reach as well. He was also apparently a state runner-up in high school wrestling.
That's about where his on-paper advantages end, especially given the short-notice nature of the fight. He was in camp, though, with a previous booking against a 1-0 fighter this previous weekend.
I'm also concerned that both of Klein's losses (counting as an amateur) came on the ground. That's not a great sign against a high-level grappler like Souza, especially since Klein seems to rely on his wrestling fairly heavily.
I expect Souza to cover his -160 price tag at Caesars, but splitting exposure between his moneyline and finish prop also makes sense if we get a solid price on the latter.
Prediction: Heraldo Souza defeats Nick Klein via submission
Billy's Bets: Heraldo Souza (-160 at Caesars)
