Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 8 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, October 1, fight card.
DWCS Season 8 Episode 8 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. New Contender Series events take place every Tuesday night this season through Oct. 15.
As with all UFC Contender Series events, some of the DWCS winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
Through 7 events this season, UFC President and CEO Dana White, who's cageside for each show, has handed out 29 UFC contracts.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 8 odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 8 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 8 Odds & Best Bets
Welterweights: Christien Savoie (+550) vs. Jacobe Smith (-800)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:05 p.m. ET
Jacobe Smith is the obligatory massive favorite on this week's DWCS card. He's a perfect 8-0 as a professional with six first-round knockouts.
Smith was the Big 12 wrestling champion in 2019 at Oklahoma State following two junior college national titles. That's a sentence that would also be true about all-time UFC great Daniel Cormier, making it an impressive pedigree.
Now training at Fortis MMA, Smith has shown improvements in his striking with a pair of one-punch knockouts in his last two fights. He had two decision wins prior to that, but he seemed to pass up on potential finishes in order to build some cage time before making the jump to the big leagues.
Smith's striking isn't pretty, but he's got plenty of power and natural athleticism while his opponents' ability to fire back is limited by the takedown threat he provides.
Which makes it hard to see a path for Christien Savoie, a kickboxer who was taken down within 30 seconds by UFC fighter Bassil Hafez and never made it back to his feet before being submitted.
The 32-year-old is fighting out of the MMA hotbed of New Brunswick, Canada, and has primarily competed in smaller Canadian promotions.
This fight isn't happening because the UFC wants to be in the Christien Savoie business. As much as I'd love to cash another massive underdog, I don't see it happening here.
Instead, I'm playing Jacobe Smith to win inside the distance at a surprisingly reasonable -175 price at Betway, but keep an eye out on other books as they open up prop markets.
Prediction: Jacobe Smith defeats Christien Savoie via T/KO (ground and pound)
The Bet: Jacobe Smith wins Inside the Distance -175 (Betway)
Middleweights: Abdellah Er-Ramy (+200) vs. Torrez Finney (-245)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Torrez Finney is attempting to become (to my knowledge) the first three-time winner in Contender Series history as he gets his second shot in the 2024 season.
The fact that the 9-0 middleweight is still fighting on the Contender Series makes it all the more apparent that the show is as much about producing content for cheap as it is about finding "UFC-level" fighters – but I digress.
As mentioned in my original breakdown on Finney, he's a former D-1 football player, but he also wrestled at the college level. That's easy to see in his past Contender Series appearances, in which he's landed 17 total takedowns. He finished the first of the two with a submission, but he cruised to a relatively boring decision his last time out.
Finney will have that option available again this time as he's facing a pure strike in Abdellah Er-Ramy. The Morocco native fights out of Spain, where he's compiled a 7-1 pro record with five knockouts.
The only easily available tape on Er-Ramy was in his PFL fight in March 2023, when he picked up a first-round knockout. He was nearly finished with an overhand left after having a kick caught, and he also got taken down and controlled for a chunk of the round.
His opponent let him up with an ill-timed (and executed) submission attempt before gassing out and getting finished, but it wasn't an especially impressive performance from Er-Ramy.
It's also concerning that Er-Ramy hasn't fought in 18 months – especially considering Dana White criticized Finney for taking only one fight between the 2023 and 2024 Contender Series seasons. Finney has fought five times since Er-Ramy's last bout.
Still, I don't love laying the juice on Finney, and I'm not entirely confident he finds the finish. Let's wait for the -3.5 point spread lines on DraftKings, which should get him into a more appealing price range.
Prediction: Torrez Finney defeats Abdellah Er-Ramy via decision
The Bet: Finney Torrez -3.5 point spread (-140 or better)
Bantamweights: David Martinez (-180) vs. Xavier Franklin (+154)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
David Martinez is the reigning Combate Global bantamweight champion with a 10-1 record marred only by a split-decision loss in 2021. Nine of those wins are by knockout, including his two most recent that impressively occurred in the fourth round.
The most recent of those was an insane spinning heel kick against a solid opponent, making it clear that Martinez is a dangerous striker.
The 26-year-old showed solid striking throughout the contest, darting in and out of range with multiple punch combos and occasionally punctuating those with leg kicks.
His volume was a bit lacking, though, and I can see how he dropped a previous split decision. He's often landing the better strikes – but not always enough of them to make the winner of the round clear. That was especially concerning in his last fight – at least prior to the knockout – when he struggled to stay ahead of an opponent who clearly wanted to grapple
I didn't see Martinez initiate any grappling in the fights I watched, but he was able to either defend takedowns, reverse to top position, or find his way back to the feet whenever his opponents did. He pretty clearly would rather be striking, but at worst he has the ability to ensure he can do so most of the time.
Xavier "Mr. Benjamin" Franklin is less experienced at 5-0 professionally, but he also holds a regional title that he's successfully defended. Like Martinez, that includes a trip into the championship rounds, so I don't expect cardio to be an issue for either fighter here.
Franklin fights moving forward, stalking his opponents and attempting to draw them out with feints. Like Martinez, he's not an overwhelming volume puncher, but when he pulls the trigger, he has some of the fastest hands I've seen in a long time.
He moves his head well, and he leads with his forehead when advancing in order to lessen the impact of shots coming back his way. He takes a few too many leg kicks for my liking, but that could be a product of fighting taller and longer opponents – which won't be the case here.
I'd like to see him diversify his attack a bit more since he relies almost exclusively on his hands. To his credit, he mixes in body shots well though, giving his opponents multiple areas to defend.
This is a challenging fight to predict. I haven't seen either fighter forced out of their comfort zone in past fights. Both look great as the hammer, but I would've loved to see how they respond to an opponent they can't overwhelm with their speed and power in striking exchanges.
Given that, the logical thing to do here is to take the plus-money side, which in this case is Franklin. Either fighter could find a finish here, but Franklin's output gives him a better shot at winning close rounds as well.
The best line is +154 at DraftKings
Prediction: Xavier Franklin defeats David Martinez via decision
The Bet: Xavier Franklin +154 (DraftKings)
Featherweights: Carlos Calderon (+235) vs. Alberto Montes (-290)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
Alberto Montes originally found himself booked against Robbie Ring, a returning DWCS fighter who lost his first bout. Now he gets an arguably tougher test in Carlos Calderon, though the short-notice nature of the booking for Calderon isn't ideal.
Montes is 9-1 with five submission victories, including his last three wins. He's fought relatively tough opponents in the solid promotions of Combate Global and Titan FC, though he did some can-crushing early in his career.
He's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who runs his own school in Florida while doing training camps at The Goat Shed with a handful of UFC fighters.
Montes' parents both trained taekwondo, and his base in the art is evident in his standup style. He has a wide, karate-style stance and throws plenty of spinning and leaping kicks. He doesn't set them up well with his hands, preferring to snipe with them from the outside.
That style requires time and space, but he relies on his grappling to get the job done when opponents crowd him. Most of his submissions are from front headlock positions, which suggests he forced his opponents into bad takedown attempts and made them pay.
Defensively, he can get caught with strikes due to his low hands and risky striking techniques. He was knocked out badly in his lone loss – against a 35-year-old who's now 3-3 as a pro. I also worry slightly about his cardio; those high-amplitude techniques require a fair amount of energy.
The short-notice booking for Calderon limits some of the cardio concerns, but Calderon might not be at a huge disadvantage there. The 6-2 pro also has three submission wins to his name, though against lesser competition. His only fights against opponents more than one fight over .500 were his two losses.
He's at least a BJJ brown belt himself, receiving that rank in December 2020. I couldn't find evidence of a black belt, but he's probably earned it since then.
The striking style is vaguely similar with a wide stance he switches between southpaw and orthodox, as well as a kick-heavy and defensively limited approach. I was impressed by his wrestling and grappling though, as he was able to stop the onslaught from an over-aggressive opponent by picking up a takedown.
His top game is also solid as he looks to do damage first and then hunt for submissions later.
I'm tempted to take the underdog here out of appreciation for both his style and his training camp (Elevation Fight Team in Denver). However, it's hard to know how well his skills will play up against stiffer competition.
Instead, I'm taking the Under 1.5 rounds at -110. The likeliest outcome here is that one of these defensively irresponsible fighters eats a big shot early. While that's my official bet; I'll likely sprinkle a bit on Calderon to pick up a win by finish as well.
Prediction: Alberto Montes defeats Carlos Calderon by T/KO
The Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds -110 (DraftKings)
Light Heavyweights: Diyar Nurgozhay (-125) vs. Bartosz Szewczyk (+105)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
I'm glad I do a written piece covering DWCS rather than a podcast, given the absolutely unpronounceable names in this 205-pound matchup.
It should be a fun fight, though, with the closest betting lines on the card and 14 finishes across the 17 combined wins from both men.
Diyar Nurhozhay has the better record on paper at a perfect 9-0. The Kazakhstan-born fighter has fought mainly in the Middle East against a string of reasonably tough opponents with plenty of experience and winning records.
Operating out of a southpaw stance, he uses his stance to his advantage very well. Nurgozhay is constantly claiming the outside foot, which he uses to set up leg kicks from both sides before climbing the ladder with body and head shots.
He's one of the more advanced technical strikers I've broken down for the Contender Series in a while, but he's not especially quick or explosive with his strikes. He's very accurate, though, and his refusal to overextend for big shots helps his defense.
While I was unable to find many instances of him grappling offensively, he was able to find his way to top position when opponents forced the issue. I suspect he has a grappling background of some sort, and he was a world champion in pankration (an amateur combat sport resembling MMA but with limited striking allowed).
It might not come up against Bartosz Szewczyk anyway, given the underdog's similar striking-heavy style. The Polish fighter has six wins by knockout on his 8-2-1 record, including his last three wins.
He's the bigger and more athletic fighter in this matchup, but he has a fairly basic striking style. His power is solid, but he'll overextend looking for big shots and has a tendency to drop his hands.
That leaves him open to counters from more disciplined fighters, and he took plenty of shots even in his wins. I also couldn't find any offensive grappling, though he defended all of the (fairly poor) takedown attempts against him. I'd probably make Nurgozhay the favorite in a grappling match, but that's mostly guesswork.
I don't feel great about it at the price tag, but I've got to side with technique over physicality in this matchup. Especially since Nurgozhay likely has a cardio edge, given his five-round title fight win for Eagle FC.
Prediction: Divar Nurgozhay defeats Bartosz Szewczyk via decision
The Bet: Divar Nurgozhay -120 (Caesars Sportsbook)
