Darren Elkins and Julian Erosa will face off in the UFC 314 prelims on Saturday, April 12.
Here's my Elkins vs. Erosa prediction.
Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa Odds, Prediction
| Featherweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Elkins Odds | +250 |
| Erosa Odds | -334 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-125/-115) |
Projection: Julian Erosa 69.8%
Julian Erosa is the bigger athlete (3" taller, 3" reach advantage), and five years younger than Darren "The Damage" Elkins, who is coming off consecutive victories at age 40, heading into his 30th UFC bout.
Erosa is a dangerous striker with opportunistic jiu-jitsu skills, and Elkins seems to get badly wobbled, hurt, cut open – or all three – in every one of his fights at this stage of his career.
Still, Elkins is a relentless chain wrestler (averages 5.8 attempts per five minutes at distance; completed 66 of 190, or 35% in his career), and Erosa can both struggle with wrestling defense (denied 17 of 29 attempts, 59%) and get stuck on bottom (49% control rate vs. 71% for Elkins) when he can't snatch a guillotine.
I project value on Elkins prefight (projected +232, bet to +250) but might prefer to wait until live after Round 1; Erosa should hurt Elkins early – and the first round should be his best round – but if Elkins is alive after five minutes, he might take Erosa to wrestling school for the final two rounds.
In the prop market, I lean toward the fight to go to decision (projected -110, listed +110) or Elkins to win by decision (projected +472, listed +500); however, I can assure you that even if this fight goes 15 minutes, there will be multiple near finishes; betting an Over or distance prop would be a miserable sweat; I'm not particularly enthusiastic about betting either.
Bets
- Darren Elkins Live after Round 1
