Lewis vs. Pavlovich Odds
Few fights at Saturday's UFC 277 event offer the type of intrigue that heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich do.
The two big men meet in a highly anticipated main-card matchup, with Texas' own Lewis (26-9) meeting the equally intimidating and powerful Pavlovich (15-1).
Will the fight be a quick one like so many expect? Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Lewis | Pavlovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-9 | 15-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:22 | 2:55 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 260 lbs. | 257 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 84" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/7/1985 | 5/13/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.56 | 6.08 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.51 | 4.45 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg. | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 0% |
| TD Def | 55% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
A heavyweight matchup between two finish-reliant brawlers with poor cardio can only play out in one of two ways: quick finish or gassy slop-fest.
Surprisingly, these fighters are a combined 7-2 on the scorecards. But one must imagine Lewis would benefit from a close, low-volume fight in his home state of Texas.
While Lewis isn't a technical fighter or the best minute-winner, his presence and power still represent a serious step up in competition for Pavlovich relative to the Russian's previous opponents.
Lewis has competed with the best heavyweights in the world for nearly a decade, and Pavlovich's best win – over an aged Shamil Abdurakhimov – is someone Lewis knocked out in the fourth round back in 2016.
Experience and strength of schedule certainly point toward Lewis, though he may certainly be reaching the tail-end of his career.
He likely has the grappling upside here, too, though. Pavlovich's lone loss came after a takedown and ground and pound from Alistair Overeem.
Lewis utilized the same trip technique in his past two bouts against Chris Daukaus (leading to a knockout) and Tai Tuivasa (leading to a pair of takedowns) in his past two fights. If he can pine Pavlovich up against the cage, take him down and land a couple of big shots, it could be a wrap.
And Lewis owns the puncher's chance of all puncher's chances in any matchup.
Lewis vs. Pavlovich Pick
Pavlovich does have a five-inch reach advantage, and he's undoubtedly faster and more technical.
Still, despite some decision wins – including a five-round fight on the regional scene – his cardio and durability in a slugfest remain a question mark.
The Russian opened closer to +120 in this matchup, but the line has flipped. I would have taken either fighter at this number in what essentially amounts to a coinflip matchup.
Pavlovich certainly had value at the open, but Lewis seems like the clear value side at the close; you can bet him to +120.
The Pick: Derrick Lewis (+125, 0.5u) at Draftkings
