Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos vs. Osman Diaz will kick off the UFC 313 early prelims on Saturday, March 8.
Here's my dos Santos vs. Diaz Prediction.
Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos vs. Osman Diaz Odds, Prediction
| Middleweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Santos Odds | -198 |
| Diaz Odds | +164 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (+124 / -160) |
Projection: Santos (65.9%)
Ozzy Diaz is the bigger man (4" taller with a 4" reach advantage) and coming down from Light Heavyweight in his last matchup to face Djorden Santos – who earned his contract with an upset win over Will Currie (closed as high as +380) on contender series last September.
Diaz has been knocked out in both appearances under the UFC banner (including a loss to Joe Pyfer on Contender Series) but he has the power advantage in this matchup.
Still, Santos is seven years younger, with a more efficient striking style and a far better gas tank, and I trust him to overtake the momentum in the second half of the fight. Bet Santos Live if he loses the opening round.
I show a slight edge on Santos's moneyline (projected -202) and either the Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) or the fight to go the distance (projected +124, listed +150).
Moreover, I show a correlated value for Santos to win by decision (projected +218, listed +300), but I wouldn't rule out him winning by attritional damage in Round 3 (+850).
Bets
- Djorden Santos (-195, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -200
- Djorden Santos Live after Round 1
