Mayes vs. Abdelwahab Odds
One of Saturday's more-intriguing UFC 277 matchups pits heavyweight Don'Tale Mayes against promotional newcomer Hamdy Abdelwahab, who's a bit of a mystery to fight fans.
Mayes (9-4) looks for his third straight win when he takes on Abdelwahab, a late replacement who's also an Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler for Egypt. He's currently 5-0 with five knockouts in his young MMA career.
Let's dig into a preliminary-card matchup that has a lot of unknowns.
Tale of the Tape
| Mayes | Abdelwahab | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-4 | 5-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:20 | n/a |
| Height | 6'6" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 260 lbs. | 264 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 81" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/16/1992 | 1/22/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.83 | 0.0 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg. | 1.32 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 0% |
| TD Def | 62% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Abdelwahab is fighting in place of Justin Tafa as a short-notice debutant. The Olympic wrestler obviously has limited MMA experience.
Mayes has faced better competition and made significant strides as a fighter, particularly in his wrestling and grappling. And he should be the cleaner striker in this matchup while standing 4 inches taller, with a nine-inch reach advantage.
If Mayes can deny the takedowns (62% career takedown defense) and keep this fight standing, he should pour damage on Abdelwahab. And even if he's on the wrong end of some wrestling exchanges, I expect him to land the shots when these two eventually return to their feet.
Abdelwahab carries power, and Mayes needs to keep this fight at range and use his length to avoid eating a knockout blow.
Mayes vs. Abdelwahab Pick
Ultimately, I expect the more experienced and well-rounded fighter to pull away and Mayes to secure another attritional-based stoppage.
I projected Mayes as a 70% favorite in this fight and would bet his moneyline up to -215 at a two percent edge compared to my number.
Moreover, I projected Mayes to win inside the distance 49% of the time (70% of his win condition), and I would bet his odds to win inside the distance down to +125.
The Picks:
- Don'Tale Mayes (-180, 0.75u) at Caesars
- Don'Tale Mayes Wins Inside the Distance (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel
