Klose vs. Garcia Odds
Two lightweights who have experienced some recent success meet on Saturday's UFC 277 preliminary card with Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa Garcia.
Klose (12-2-1), who's on a 4-1 run, is a sizable favorite over late replacement Rafa Garcia (14-2), who looks for his third straight win.
With oddsmakers expecting this fight to go the distance, where's the value in betting this ABC-televised matchup? Let's dive in.
Tale of the Tape
| Klose | Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2-1 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:42 | 13:43 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/9/1988 | 8/5/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.42 | 3.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 36% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.61 | 4.94 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg. | 1.77 | 4.10 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 48% |
| TD Def | 68% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Klose is the more technical fighter, but Garcia is a bit more enthusiastic in the cage, which could mean the difference on the scorecards.
Garcia has shown an ability to fight to his level of competition and turn his bouts into coinflips – whether for good or bad, depending on his moneyline price.
He keeps a solid pace on the feet and shoots takedowns at high volume (8.5 attempts per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy). He's also shown a more well-rounded skillset and improved cardio in his recent fights, so "Gifted" may be hitting his prime at age 27.
Klose has the better wins and has faced the superior slate of opponents. And he may be the more skilled fighter everywhere in this matchup. Still, the margins aren't particularly drastic in any one area.
Klose vs. Garcia Pick
Neither fighter had a significant advantage in any aspect of this fight, and I don't view either lightweight as a potent finisher. I could easily foresee Garcia stealing a close decision.
I projected this bout to go to a decision 67% of the time (-200 implied), and I would bet the Fight to Go to a Decision up to -183 (listed -180 at FanDuel), at a two percent edge compared to my number.
The Picks:
- Fight goes to Decision (-180, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Rafa Garcia wins by Decision (+420, 0.1u) at FanDuel
