Check out my Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland predictions, picks, and odds for UFC 312 on Saturday, February 8, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC will return to the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, for a 12-fight card that will include a middleweight title fight and a rematch between current champion Dricus Du Plessis ("DDP") and former champion Sean Strickland.
Du Plessis won the belt against Strickland via split decision at UFC 297 last January. Thirteen of the 23 media members scored the fight for DDP, but 57% of fans scored it for Strickland. Rounds two and three were the most hotly debated.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland UFC 312 Odds
| Du Plessis Odds | -205 |
| Strickland Odds | +170 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds -195/+150 |
| Location | Qudos Bank Arena | Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | Midnight ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 312 odds via DraftKings as of Thursday Night. Bet on UFC 312 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
DDP, the UFC's first South African champion, enters off his first title defense—a fourth-round submission win over Israel Adesanya in August. Meanwhile, Strickland earned his way back into title contention with a June win against Paulo Costa, a controversial split decision. Strickland clearly won at least three of the five rounds, with an argument for all five.
Despite the competitive nature of their first contest—which closed as a true pick’em (-108 each at FanDuel)—the moneyline has shifted more than 15% in implied probability for the rematch, with Strickland as high as +180 (35.7% implied) at the time of writing.
The American will look to recapture his title on Saturday and may have a partisan crowd in the same building where he defeated Adesanya to secure gold at UFC 293 to help disrupt an 8-0 start in the UFC and ten fight unbeaten streak for DDP.
Here's my Du Plessis vs. Strickland prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Du Plessis | Strickland | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-2 | 29-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:21 | 15:39 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 76" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/14/1994 | 2/27/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.18 | 6.01 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.85 | 4.48 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.04 | 0.78 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 64% |
| TD Def | 50% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.2 |
I'm proud of my breakdown of the first matchup between these middleweights because I got many things right.
DDP proved to be the more powerful athlete, using his body and high kicks alongside takedown attempts to win the center of the cage and pressure Strickland backward.
In Round 1, Du Plessis appeared a bit tentative, potentially showing his opponent too much respect, and allowing Strickland to land his snappy jab at will. Still, despite swelling in his eye, Du Plessis seemed unbothered by Strickland's power. In the middle rounds, he increased the pressure and controlled the action.
Strickland is the superior boxer, especially defensively, and he typically doesn't allow himself to get hit clean to the head often. Still, because he relies on his shoulder roll, he tends to move backward with his chin up as his opponents blitz in – which can leave him open to big clean shots if opponents do land. He's also highly adept at checking leg kicks – But that might have worked against him here, as Du Plessis, who switched to the body and head with his attacks against Strickland and landed aesthetically damaging blows.
Although he wasn’t able to do much with his takedowns (he landed six of eight, with 2:08 of control time), DDP's mix of grappling forced Strickland to lower his guard to defend, which allowed more strikes to land—particularly at a distance with head kicks and in the clinch, where Du Plessis landed a vicious elbow that opened a fight-changing cut on Strickland's left eye.
Strickland typically out-lands his opponents (+1.5 to +0.4 strike margin per minute for their respective careers) and ultimately landed more volume both in the fight (173-137 on significant strikes, 157-81 to the head) and in four of five rounds. Still, his range finders—a peppering jab and teep kicks—don’t score as well with the judges as the explosive blitzes from Du Plessis.
Dricus may not have 25 minutes of cardio like his opponent, but he has enough in the tank to win about 70% of the minutes in a five-round fight. DDP seemed to slow in round five after exerting himself (five takedown attempts out of 11 in the fight) in the first championship round of his career, but he had done enough by that point.
Perhaps those visuals—Strickland pouring on the volume late against a slowing opponent—and the subsequent split decision have convinced bettors that the moneyline market has overcorrected for the rematch, but don’t count me among them.
Going into the first matchup, Du Plessis had never seen the championship rounds (or competed in a five-round fight); he’s now done so twice and won the fourth round (including a finish over Adesanya) in each of his past two contests. His gas tank has also looked better in recent fights since undergoing surgery to fix a breathing issue in his nose. When DDP decided to move forward in the first fight, Strickland struggled to get his offense going.
Du Plessis seems extraordinarily durable, and Strickland—an excellent point fighter—has far less finishing upside than his rival. As a result, Strickland would need to win a decision to regain the belt, and he’s likely drawing on thin margins to score three competitive rounds in his favor against a champion with a distinct power advantage.
Du Plessis vs. Strickland Prediction, Pick
In the first fight, I projected Dricus Du Plessis as a 53% favorite (-113 implied odds) and bet on him at plus money. I also set the fight to go the distance at 31% (+218), which aligned with the betting market (listed at +220).
The odds for the rematch have shifted to -215 (68.3% implied) and -180 (64.3%), reflecting a difference of 15% and 33.3%, respectively. My updated projections are -199 (66.5%) and -148 (59.7%), so I don’t see value on either side of the moneyline or the total, aside from a slight edge on the “goes-to-decision” prop (-160) at FanDuel.
I would need -200 to bet Du Plessis or -150 to play the “goes to decision” prop.
However, I believe the finishing odds have overcorrected, especially on Du Plessis’ side, relative to the first fight and the middleweight baseline (58% finish rate since 2021).
Du Plessis was +750 to win a decision and +130 to win inside the distance in the first fight (+250 by KO/TKO and +500 by submission); those odds have now shifted to +175 and +215 respectively for the rematch (+380 by KO/TKO and +750 by submission).
I project a slight edge for Du Plessis inside the distance (projected +200) and by submission (projected +652), and I would sprinkle on the former at +200 or better.
For those willing to lay some juice, I also project an edge on Du Plessis in the finish-only market (projected -472, listed -340).
Sean's Pick: Dricus Du Plessis wins Inside the Distance (+215 at DraftKings)
