Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart Odds
Amongst the title fight rematches on Saturday night, there is also a rematch on the prelims between Eryk Anders and Darren Stewart, who fought to a no-contest in March.
Stewart hurt Anders early in the first fight before the former Alabama linebacker rallied and appeared close to finishing Stewart with less than 30 seconds remaining in the first round.
However, Anders threw an illegal knee while Stewart was technically grounded, and the fight was almost immediately called off and declared a no-contest
Stewart closed as a -190 favorite (implied 65.5%) for the first fight and has climbed as high +120 (implied 45.5%) for the rematch. On principle, it seems like he might be the value side this time around — but is that actually the case?
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Anders | Stewart | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5 (1 NC) | 12-6 (2 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:36 | 9:12 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/21/87 | 12/30/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.23 | 3.09 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.15 | 3.09 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.62 | 1.50 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 40% |
| TD Def | 80% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Going into the first matchup, it appeared that Stewart might have the edge both in terms of grappling upside, and striking volume.
However, Anders was actively pressuring Stewart, and fighting much more aggressively after moving his camp to Fight Ready MMA and finally looked to have made improvements to his overall game that many had been hoping to see for a while.
Most importantly, Anders was the one who looked dominant in the grappling exchanges (landed 3-of-7 takedowns secured 2:35 of control time) and he had the power advantage in the striking exchanges; which is a statement against a large man-like Stewart.
Anders is famously durable, and he quickly recovered from some big shots by Stewart in order to turn the first fight in his favor.
Considering the fact that Stewart didn't appear to have any of the advantages that were presupposed the first time around, I'm not surprised to see Anders come back as the favorite in this spot.
Anders vs. Stewart Pick
I project slight value on Anders to win this fight inside the distance (projected +178, listed +200), but considering the fact that I projected Stewart as a large favorite (67%) the first time around, and bet him to win by decision (at +130), I'm hard-pressed to completely flip my opinion on this matchup.
On principle, I would typically bet Stewart here as an underdog, given the 20% price adjustment since the first fight. However, he either had a really bad day — while Anders had a good one — or Stewart's perceived advantages went away once the two finally met in the cage.
Generally speaking, English wrestlers seem to fall short of expectations, and even though I think Stewart can be an effective UFC fighter, perhaps Anders is too sturdy to succumb to that type of game plan.
I think there's value on Anders to finish the fight (legally) this time — but I'm going to pass on this fight altogether, given the odds history of this matchup.
The Pick: Pass
