Francis Ngannou vs. Renan Ferreira Odds
| Ngannou Odds | -320 |
| Ferreira Odds | +230 |
| Over/Under | TBD (XX / XX) |
| Location | The Mayadeen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
| Time | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ PPV ($49.99) |
| Odds as of Thursday and via Caesars | |
The UFC is billing the fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic as being for the "undisputed" heavyweight championship of the world. However, the fight for the lineal heavyweight championship takes place this weekend under the PFL banner.
Francis NGannou never lost his UFC world championship, and is now making his PFL debut after a two year hiatus to the boxing ring. Officially for the "PFL Super Fight" title, the bout against 2023 PFL heavyweight winner Renan Ferreira is the real heavyweight championship fight this fall.
There's plenty of questions about both fighters. Ngannou's break from competing in MMA coupled with his age (38) and newfound financial security might mean he's not the fighter he once was. On the other side, Ferreira's level of competition is questionable at best, given the talent in the division from both the PFL and Bellator.
We'll get at least some answers to those questions on Saturday, but let's see if we can cash some bets along the way.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Ngannou | Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-3 | 13-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-0 (1 NC) |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'8" |
| Weight | 257 lbs. | 260 lbs. |
| Arm Reach | 83" | 85" |
| Leg Reach | n/a | 48" |
| Date of birth | 9/5/1986 | 11/23/1989 |
| Age | 38 | 34 |
The lesser known of the two competitors, Renan Ferreira answered the call for a legitimate opponent for Francis NGannou when he (unofficially) unified the PFL and Bellator heavyweight belts with a 20-second knockout of Bellator champion Ryan Bader in February.
That was the fifth fight in eight months for the previously unheralded Ferreira, who won the 2023 PFL season at heavyweight with three knockouts following a decision loss in the opening round that has since been overturned.
Ferreira began training in 2013, and is still fairly raw by top level MMA standards. On the plus side, at 34 years old he's still relatively young for a heavyweight. He's also 6'8" with massive power — neither of which can be taught.
His overturned loss last season shows the path to beating Ferreira. Rizvan Kuniev put Ferreira on his back (or up against the fence) for most of their fight, both places limiting the value of "Problema's" reach and power.
While he holds a BJJ black belt, his wrestling is basically non existent. That's a skill gap that's very hard to close for somebody who started grappling in their 20s, with many MMA fighters having extensive backgrounds in some form of grappling dating back to childhood.
Luckily for Ferreira that's less of a concern against NGannou, who originally trained as a boxer and kickboxer before transitioning to MMA (and then back to boxing, as it were). Ngannou's biggest strengths are also his size and power — though he's developed a more well-rounded MMA game over the years.
That was on display the last time we saw "Preadtor" strap on the little gloves. Coming into the final fight of his UFC contract against French Kickboxer Ciryl Gane, Ngannou landed four takedowns with over eight minutes of control time in a surprising game plan.
It came out later that NGannou was dealing with a significant knee injury during that fight — which is why he didn't want to strike with the dangerous Frenchman — but it still showed the development in his overall MMA game.
Ferreira presents a bigger "Problema" on the ground, though. He threatened Kuniev was a few submissions, and was able to sweep the Russian to top position. That should give NGannou some pause when considering a game plan here.
On the feet, Ferreira will try to stay at range, backing NGannou up with feints and jabs. NGannou isn't afraid to take one to give one in order to cut that distance. I'm not sure how many either man can take and remain standing, but it's not many.
NGannou is (was?) the quicker and more technical striker, but Ferreira's five-inch reach advantage could neutralize that. Ferreira also has a slightly more diverse striking game with leg kicks and knees, but that's nothing NGannou hasn't seen from past opponents in the UFC.
Ngannou vs. Ferreira Pick & Prediction
If we knew the same version of Francis Ngannou we saw from 2018 until his UFC exit was showing up on Saturday, it would be hard to pick against him. Between the major knee injuries, time out of the cage, personal tragedy and bad knockout loss just seven months ago, we certainly don't know that.
The knockout might be the most concerning part of that equation. NGannou's offense is often predicated on storming forward, occasionally taking shots on the way in. He might not survive that journey against Ferreira, especially if his chin isn't 100% recovered from the damage dealt by Anthony Joshua.
That makes this a closer fight on the feet than the betting lines imply, as either man could end it with one punch. I trust Ferreira's chin more, though, so I'll take the value on his moneyline at +230 at Caesars.
Once props come out, keep an eye on NGannou's decision (or 4/5/decision) line, though. We should get a juicy price on that, so I'll be sprinkling a quarter unit or so on one of those.
The Pick: Renan Ferreira +230 (Caesars)
