Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera Odds
UFC veteran and 40-year-old former champion, Frankie Edgar, will face off with Marlon Vera on the UFC 268 main card. Edgar (1-3 in his past four) will attempt to bounce back from a brutal knockout loss in February to Cory Sandhagen.
Edgar faces tough competition against Vera, who has eight finishes at bantamweight, tied for the most in the division with TJ Dillashaw.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Edgar | Vera | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-9 | 17-17 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:29 | 11:02 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 10/16/1981 | 12/2/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.70 | 3.91 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.71 | 4.08 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.28 | 0.88 |
| TD Acc | 31% | 42% |
| TD Def | 65% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.3 |
"Chito" Vera typically starts slow — losing the first round on at least one scorecard in each of his past five bouts (the other, his finish against Sean O'Malley) — before picking up the pace.
Falling behind could be a recipe for disaster against Edgar, who has competed for belts at Lightweight and Featherweight and boasts some of the best cardio in UFC history.
Unfortunately, Edgar is on the wrong side of the age curve (recently turned 40) in a smaller weight class. His legendary durability (all three career knockout losses in his past six fights) appears to be fading.
Conversely, Vera looks like one of the most durable fighters on the roster, and he has a very violent style.
Edgar is the more efficient boxer (+0.99 to -0.17 strike differential; -11% accuracy; +15% defense) and the superior grappler (2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, 31% accuracy). Vera can lose minutes on pure output or get stuck on the bottom (69% takedown defense) and cede control time, which has been an issue in the past.
Edgar can win this fight through volume and control, but all of the finishing equity lies with Vera — Edgar seemingly needs takedowns to see his hand raised.
Edgar vs. Vera Pick
There's value on the fight to go the distance (projected -177, listed -150) or the Over 2.5 rounds. However, I prefer the value on Edgar's odds to win by decision (projected +196, listed +250).
I'm not interested in taking a significant position on a 40-year-old bantamweight. Nor am I interested in doubling down on his durability by betting the distance prop or the over; we'll keep our wagering on this fight small.
The Pick: Frankie Edgar wins by Decision (+250)
