Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka Odds
Light Heavyweight gold will be at stake on Saturday as current champion Glover Teixeira faces No. 2 ranked contender Jiri Prochazka in Singapore.
Glover will seek his first title defense after becoming the second-oldest champion in UFC history when he defeated Jan Blachowicz at UFC 267 last October. The Brazilian enters on a six-fight winning streak.
Prochazka, the former Rizin champion, earned his first UFC title shot after a pair of finishes over Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes. The Czech fighter is currently on a 12-fight winning streak.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday's matchup and utilize those factors to bet on the main event
Tale of the Tape
| Teixeira | Prochazka | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 33-7 | 28-3-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:10 | 7:39 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/28/79 | 10/14/92 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.72 | 7.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.83 | 6.80 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg. | 2.11 | 0.98 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 100% |
| TD Def | 60% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.0 |
Jiri is the taller, longer, and faster striker, but he's also a much younger man. As I often reiterate, the younger fighter typically offers betting value when there's a drastic age differential.
When there's a 10-year age gap between UFC fighters — dating back to 2013 — the younger fighter has won 67% of the time at average odds of -135 (57.5% implied). In other words, younger fighters typically hold a 9-10% edge over the betting market.
Glover is very hittable on the feet and gets hurt standing in nearly all of his fights. His striking isn't overly complicated, but he carries substantial power in his left hook and overhand right.
Jiri is a relentless striker who chucks volume and uses all eight points of contact (hands, feet, knees, elbows) by flowing from one technique to the next.
A reminder: @Jiri_BJP is a Swiss army knife of strikes 👊
[ #UFC275 | Saturday | Live on ESPN+ PPV: https://t.co/IEu8bU0BAa ] pic.twitter.com/TPEKHtB0aJ
— UFC (@ufc) June 6, 2022
Still, while Jiri is an offensive dynamo, he's open to counters on the defensive end. He is reckless enough with his distance management that Glover could secure a clinch position, drill a reactive takedown, or take Jiri's back if he can time his entries correctly.
Moreover, Jiri isn't overly durable. Like Glover, he gets hurt in nearly all of his fights, including both of his UFC bouts. Jiri seemed to go unconscious briefly against Reyes before recovering and returning to the fight.
Additionally, Jiri's takedown defense is subpar, and his getup game isn't particularly technical. Although Glover isn't a dominant wrestler, his top control is second to none. If Glover can peel Jiri down to the mat, it could either be the end of the round or the end of the fight.
Glover passes guard and transitions to dominant positions with relative ease, and if he can find his way to mount — as Reyes did — the Brazilian will secure his first title defense.
While I certainly favor Jiri in the striking exchanges, the power and durability on either side are closer than the differential in their respective grappling skills.
Ultimately, we have a matchup between two glass cannons, who are dominant in specific offensive areas but vulnerable to getting finished by this particular opponent's style.
Teixeira vs. Prochazka Pick
I projected Glover Teixeira as nearly a 40% underdog in this fight (+151 implied), and I perceive him as the value side for moneyline wagering.
I prefer Glover's odds to win inside the distance (listed +250, projected +195) or by submission (listed +380, projected +286). I would rather play his violence props at considerably better odds than his moneyline.
Moreover, I projected this fight to end inside the distance 88% of the time (-734 implied), and I show substantial value on the unders in this matchup.
I layered my approach, attacking the under 2.5 rounds (-170), Under 3.5 (-280), and Under 4.5 (-400) in separate wagers. And I would place those bets up to-200, -300, and -450, respectively.
While the commonly listed total for this matchup is 1.5 rounds, closer to even money, most five-round fights tend to have a feeling-out process in the early stages. Once this fight gets going, I don't think the pace will slow until one of these two fighters secures a finish.
The Pick:
- Under 2.5 Rounds (-170 at Caesars, to win 0.75u)
- Under 3.5 Rounds (-280 at DraftKings, to win 0.5u)
- Under 4.5 Rounds (-400 at DraftKings, to win 0.25u)
- Glover Teixeira wins Inside the Distance (+250 at DraftKings, 0.25u)
- Glover Teixeira wins by Submission (+380 at FanDuel, 0.25u)
