Grant Dawson (22-2-1) faces Diego Ferreira (19-5) on the UFC 311 prelims on Saturday night from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
Dawson is 10-1-1 in the UFC, while Ferreira has won two straight fights after dropping three in a row to Beneil Dariush, Gregor Gillespie and Mateusz Gamrot.
Let's get into my Dawson vs. Ferreira prediction and preview in the lightweight division tonight.
Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira Odds, Prediction
| Lightweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Grant Dawson Odds | -245 |
| Diego Ferreira Odds | +200 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-160 / +124) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday night.
Crowdsourced Projections: Grant Dawson (64.7%)
Diego Ferreira, who turns 40 on Saturday, has turned back the clock in his past two performances with knockout wins over Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rebecki — the latter as a +360 underdog — on the heels of a three-fight losing streak.
The Brazilian has some decided advantages as an underdog against Grant Dawson, a back-take specialist who is nine years his junior. Ferreira is the bigger man (2-inch reach advantage) and the much better striker (+1.75 to +0.22 differential per minute), but Dawson is the better wrestler with superior cardio.
Ferreira has only spent 13% of his octagon time controlling opponents but has been held for 20% of his cage time. Conversely, Dawson has controlled opponents for 67% of his cage time and only spent 7% getting controlled by his opposition.
Still, Ferreira has good jiu-jitsu and will scramble from the bottom for at least the first couple of rounds before tiring. If he can get to striking range, he'll have opportunities to close the show against Dawson, who has shown terrible striking defense (45%) and durability concerns.
I'm more interested in betting Ferreira to win inside the distance (projected +323, listed +450) than his moneyline, which I'd play at +200 or better.
Alternatively, I'd consider betting Dawson to win in Rounds 2 (+750) or 3 (+1000) and look to live bet the favorite at a better price after Round 1; the takedowns should come more quickly as the 40-year-old Ferreira tires.
Bets
- Diego Ferreira (+210, 0.15u) at ESPNBet; bet to +200
- Diego Ferreira wins Inside the Distance (+450, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +350
- Grant Dawson Live after Round 1
