Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Seattle, Feb. 22

On Saturday, the UFC will return to Seattle, Washington, for a 12-fight card. The card will feature an important main event in the bantamweight division between former champion and No. 7 contender Henry Cejudo and No. 8-ranked Song Yadong.

Cejudo, now 38, is winless since his 2020 victory (and subsequent retirement) against Dominick Cruz (UFC 218). He enters off decision losses against Aljamain Sterling (split) and Merab Dvalishvili (unanimous).

Almost eleven years his junior, Song is 9-3-1 in the UFC's 135-pound division but just 2-2 in his past four fights, including a loss at UFC 299 against former champion Petr Yan. Saturday's fight with Cejudo will mark Song's fourth UFC main event or five-round matchup in his past five appearances.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on Cejudo vs. Yadong, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:00 p.m. ET (8:00 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.

Check out my Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong predictions, picks, and odds for UFC Seattle on Saturday, February 22.

Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong Odds, Prediction

Tale of the Tape

Song has a size (4" taller, 3" reach advantage) and strength advantage over Cejudo – a former Flyweight who has mentioned potentially moving back down to 125.

Song is the bigger hitter and much younger man, likely entering his physical prime, whereas Cejudo is nearing the end of his decorated athletic career.

Prime for prime,"Triple C" is the better athlete, with the wrestling skillset capable of exposing the weaker aspect of Song's game. The former Olympic Gold-Medalist has averaged nearly three takedown attempts per round (2.8) spent at a distance, completed 32% of those attempts (25-of-77), and spent 80% of grappling positions in control of his opposition.

Song's takedown defense and getups are more strength-oriented than technical (72%, denied 42-of-58), and he's capable of getting held both on the ground and up against the fence. He's spent 41% of grappling exchanges in the UFC getting controlled by opponents.

Despite his wrestling acumen, Cejudo hasn't been the most proactive grappler in his career – spending 72% of his time at range (vs. 75% for Song), but he's also been up against fellow wrestlers in his three most recent fights; Song presents a far different challenge than his matchups with Cruz, Dvalishvili, and Sterling.

Cejudo was extremely competitive over five rounds with Sterling, taking Aljo down three times (on eight attempts) and denying 11 of 15 from his opponent while winning the control time battle (5:06 to 4:00). He had a far more difficult time against Merab – and his rollicking pace – permitting five of 11 takedowns (for 4:23 control time) while completing just one of his seven attempts (2:05 control).

That said, he won't have to counter-grapple in this fight; it's far more straightforward for Cejudo to manage his gas tank at his age when he's striking. He seems unlikely to shoot more than two takedowns per round (career high of 11 attempts) in a five-round fight, and I'm not sure how effective he can be from those positions to override Song's striking advantage.

The power discrepancy should also be noticeable, and Song is also the far more efficient striker, out-landing opponents by +0.3 strikes per minute, compared to a negative margin (-0.3) for Cejudo.

Cejudo is exceedingly durable and offers excellent striking defense (60%). Still, unless he's controlling the fight from top position, clinching Song against the cage, or landing kicks on the edge of striking distance, he will likely get boxed up in the pocket.

Cejudo should have opportunities to kick Song's leg to slow his movement or to land reactive blast doubles to get on top as Song sits down on punches in the pocket. Still, Cejudo's margins for minute-winning are going to be slim against a fighter actively trying to land damage.

For instance, there could be rounds where Cejudo lands a takedown and spends three minutes in top position, only for Song to recover his feet and land the more effective strikes. It's far more difficult for Cejudo to win those minutes with current scoring criteria than it was earlier in his MMA career.

I expect the age differential to prove a significant factor in the fight. Where there is at least a decade in age between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won 71.2% of the time at an average odds of -141 (58.5%), more than 12% above expectation.

Fractional differences in speed make all the difference in lighter weight classes. I'd expect Song to have an evident power and speed advantage in the striking exchanges, which could lead to one-sided damage optics.

And I do project a slight edge on the favorite side of the moneyline; still, there are better ways to bet the underdog in the prop market.

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Cejudo vs. Song Yadong Prediction

I projected Song Yadong as a 72.7% favorite (-266 implied odds) in this fight, and I would consider betting his moneyline up to -242 (70.7% implied), reflecting an edge of at least two percent compared to my projection.

I set the fight to reach a decision or go the distance roughly 62% of the time (-162 implied) and personally lean to the Overs or Distance prop (listed -165 at DraftKings). Still, I'd need at least -150 (60% implied) or better to place that bet.

I also show a slight edge on Song by KO/TKO (projected +206, listed +240) or Cejudo by Decision (projected +316, listed +390); the latter is the only way I would consider wagering on the underdog.

I made Cejudo +180 a decision-only market, which directly aligns with DraftKings' price point (Cejudo +180, Song -260).

Sean's Pick: Henry Cejudo wins by Decision (+390 at BallyBet); bet to +325