Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov UFC Saudi Arabia Odds
| Adesanya Odds | -162 |
| Imavov Odds | +136 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-210 / +160) |
| Location | ANB Arena | Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
| Bout Time | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Saudi Arabia odds via DraftKings as of xx. Bet on UFC Saudi Arabia with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov odds, picks, and prediction for UFC Saudi Arabia on Saturday, February 1, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC will head to the ANB Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for an 11-fight card. The main event will be a middleweight matchup between former two-time champion Israel Adesanya and No. 5 ranked contender Nassourdine Imavov.
Adesanya has lost three of his past four fights – each for UFC Gold – and Saturday's bout will mark his first non-title fight in 13 appearances (since defeating Anderson Silva at UFC 234). He saw the championship rounds in nine fights over that span (ten in his career).
Imavov enters his fourth career five-round fight (2-1 record) with a 7-2-1 promotional record and main event wins over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier (and a loss to Sean Strickland in 2023).
A victory on Saturday should put Imavov within one win of title contention; champion Dricus du Plessis will rematch Strickland at UFC 312 next Saturday, but undefeated Khamzat Chimaev is also waiting for an opportunity to secure middleweight gold.
Here's my Adesanya vs. Imavov pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Adesanya | Imavov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-4 | 15-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 18:18 | 15:16 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/12/1989 | 3/1/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.00 | 4.51 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.21 | 3.20 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.05 | 0.88 |
| TD Acc | 12% | 36% |
| TD Def | 75% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Adesanya is the taller fighter by one inch and has a five-inch reach advantage. He is also the more efficient and technical striker in this matchup.
"The Last Stylebender" has spent 84% of his octagon time at distance and out-landed a difficult schedule of opponents by an average of one strike per minute (4.4 to 3.4).
Comparatively, Imavov has spent 53% of his cage time at distance and outlanded a lesser slate of opponents (compared to Adesanya) by just half a strike per minute (6.0 to 5.5).
Still, Imavov has improved as a fighter in recent years and is in his physical prime at age 29. Conversely, Adesanya has seemed diminished physically since his knockout loss to Alex Pereira. He has looked slower, with lessened durability and cardio in each subsequent fight in his mid-thirties. He has been knocked down or wobbled in his past four fights.
Imavov had cardio issues earlier in his career but appears to have improved his most concerning physical attribute after changing camps in 2024 and training for multiple five-round fights. To this point in his career, he's shown exceptional durability. He retains all of the grappling upside in this matchup against Adesanya.
While Imavov has spent nearly half his cage time grappling (47% in the clinch or on the mat), he's only controlled 38% of those positions. He's not the best wrestler (36% career takedown accuracy; averages 1.5 attempts per five minutes at a distance), but he has a potent top game with nasty ground and pound.
Adesanya has shown strong first-layer takedown defense throughout his career (76%, denied 72 of 95 attempts). Still, he can get stuck flat on his back for extended stretches against larger opponents, and he tends to give up his back when he stands.
Dricus Du Plessis (landed four of nine takedowns, 3:39 control), Robert Whittaker (four of ten, 3:40 control), Marvin Vettori (four of 14, 6:55 control), and Jan Błachowicz (three of five, 7:06 control) have each shown that the way to defeat Adesanya (or at least stay close against him) is to mix the striking and grappling.
Otherwise, you need to pressure Adesanya backward – limiting his ability to fire low kicks – and constantly stick a jab in his face. Despite the reach discrepancy, I'd expect Imavov to succeed with his boxing and force a pace that eventually leads to takedowns.
The Frenchman tends to generate those opportunities from the clinch – which he can enter with a flying knee or by simply crashing the pocket – but he also offers dynamic offense from close quarters.
Adesanya is equally adept with his elbows and knees in clinch positions and should be able to escape any clinch grappling more readily than defending a blast double in the center of the octagon. And those clinch exchanges may ultimately determine who wins the fight.
Still, Imavov needs to limit space and force those exchanges frequently.
If Imavov obliges a distance kickboxing match and gives Adesanya the space to operate (and capitalize on his reach advantage), the former champion should get back on track. However, if the underdog pressures forward from the opening bell, he may be able to exploit a physicality edge.
Adesanya vs. Imavov Prediction, Pick
I projected Nassourdine Imavov as a 46.9% underdog (+113 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline to about +120 (45.5% implied) or better for Saturday's main event.
I expect this fight to reach a decision about 65% of the time (-186 implied odds), well above the men's average for five-round fights (43.8% since 2018; 61.4% at Middleweight). Consider betting the goes to decision or distance prop to -170 (63% implied).
As a result, I also show correlated value on Imavov to win by decision (projected +228, listed +310 at FanDuel) at +250 (28.5% implied) or higher.
Sean's Pick: Nassourdine Imavov (+140 at Caesars); bet to +120
