Jack Della Maddalena vs. Pete Rodriguez Odds
Dana White Contender Series alum, Jack Della Maddalena, will make his UFC debut against fellow Welterweight newcomer Pete Rodriguez Saturday at UFC 270. Rodriguez is a late replacement for Warlley Alves, originally scheduled to face JDM in this matchup.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Della Maddalena | Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-2 | 4-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 0:0 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 71" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 9/10/96 | 11/13/96 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.20 | 0.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.27 | 0.0 |
| SS Defense | 65% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 75% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
It's difficult to nitpick Rodriguez: His entire professional career encompasses fewer than five minutes of action (all knockout victories), and he only made it past the six-minute mark once in his eight-fight amateur career.
The Aussie earned a UFC contract with an impressive Contender Series performance last year (landing 108-of-227 significant strike attempts) and will likely overwhelm Rodriguez if this fight goes beyond the first frame.
However, JDM has previously been hurt in big, early exchanges. Even though he is the more skilled fighter and a better overall athlete, JDM should provide Rodriguez with a window to finish in the early stages of this fight.
I'm not sure that Rodriguez is ready to fight at this level — there's a chance (based on early amateur tape) that he could be overwhelmed entirely if JDM pursues a grappling-heavy game plan.
Still, it's challenging to suppose things about a fighter that can't be seen on film, and Rodriguez's recent fights are so quick that it's difficult to discern his actual skill level or physical attributes like durability and cardio.
Della Maddalena vs. Rodriguez Pick
Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+1100 at FanDuel) encompasses the majority of his win condition, and I wouldn't fault anyone for sprinkling that prop.
I expect this fight to end inside the distance at a high clip (projected -400) and suspect that this bout between a pair of debutants ends both violently and in short order.
Including amateur bouts, this pair of fighters would have cashed an under 1.5 more than 80% of the time, so that's where my money will be.
And if Maddalena manages to lose the first round but survive, I would look to jump in at a live discount.
The Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-137)
